CFP Race: Polls and Odds Disagree

The AP poll and the sportsbooks disagree about the 2026 College Football Playoff race. Miami is No. 1 in the AP poll at 6-0 but only fourth in national title odds (+650 at FanDuel). BYU is No. 2 in the poll after beating Notre Dame, yet sportsbooks list the Cougars at +4500. Ohio State, Notre Dame and Georgia, each with one loss, are the betting favorites. The first CFP committee rankings come out November 3.

Five of the AP poll's top seven teams lost on October 17. According to ESPN, that had never happened on a single day in the AP poll era. The result is the most confused CFP picture in years. Voters have rewarded the five teams still undefeated. Sportsbooks have mostly kept faith in the blue-blood programs that just lost. Both groups can't be right, and the gap between them is where the futures market gets interesting.

This piece puts the current poll next to the current prices, explains why the two lists disagree, and identifies the games over the next two weekends most likely to close the gap.

The Poll vs. the Price: Side by Side

The table below shows every team in the AP top 10 alongside its national title price at two major sportsbooks. The implied chance is based on the FanDuel price and includes the sportsbook's margin.

AP poll released October 18, 2026, via CBS Sports. Title odds per Sports Illustrated (FanDuel) and FOX Sports (DraftKings), both updated October 18 after Week 7. Odds move; check a live number before betting.

The pattern is clear. All five undefeated teams in the top 10 are priced below their poll rank, and four of them sit at 40-1 or longer. The four one-loss teams in the top six hold the four shortest prices. The market is saying a loss to a good team matters less than who you are and who is left on your schedule.

Why Sportsbooks Don't Trust the Unbeatens

Miami: undefeated, but untested

Miami got 40 first-place votes this week, the most of any team, but it is fourth on the betting board. Sports Illustrated's odds review called the Hurricanes' remaining ACC schedule soft and pointed to the Notre Dame game as the first real test. That works against Miami in two ways. A light schedule makes the 6-0 record less convincing to the market. It also means Miami has few chances to build a strong résumé before the committee starts ranking teams. Miami hosts Pittsburgh on Saturday at noon. A comfortable win won't change much. A close one will draw attention.

BYU: the biggest gap on the board

BYU is ranked No. 2 with 20 first-place votes, and every sportsbook we checked has it priced longer than 40-1. The Cougars' 28-24 win over Notre Dame raised their price from +8000 to +4500, but that's still the largest disagreement between the poll and the betting market at the top of the rankings.

The win itself is part of the reason. The Big 12 admitted that its replay crew should have put one second back on the clock after CJ Carr's final incompletion hit the turf, which would have given Notre Dame one more play. The conference said it would review its end-of-game process. The result stands, but bettors are pricing BYU like a team that got a break, not one that controlled the game.

The Big 12 problem: three unbeatens, one automatic bid

BYU, Texas Tech and Utah are all 6-0 and all in the AP top 10. Only one of them can win the Big 12's automatic bid, and the conference schedule will hand at least some of them losses. That's the main reason none of the three is priced shorter than 40-1. The market treats the Big 12 as a likely one-bid league, so it is splitting a single playoff spot three ways.

Utah plays the first big test of that idea on Saturday night. No. 14 Houston (6-1) visits Salt Lake City at 10:15 p.m. ET, with Utah favored by 6.5. Our Big 12 football picks page tracks the conference race each week.

UCLA: priced for the injury, not the record

UCLA is 6-0 and ranked ninth, but FanDuel lists the Bruins at +8000. As we covered after the Nico Iamaleava injury, the market had already decided the team without its starting quarterback was a different team. UCLA beat Wisconsin anyway. Michigan State visits the Rose Bowl on Saturday, and another win would still do little to the title price. The Big Ten path runs through Ohio State and Indiana.

Why the One-Loss Favorites Hold Their Prices

Ohio State: the favorite without its quarterback

Ohio State's 19-15 win at Indiana ended the defending champion's winning streak and kept the Buckeyes atop the FanDuel board at +430. It also cost them quarterback Julian Sayin. He was hit on his right arm, between the elbow and shoulder, with just over eight minutes left. Ryan Day confirmed on October 20 that Sayin will miss several weeks and did not give a return date. Luke Fahey takes over, with Tavien St. Clair expected as the backup.

DraftKings has already moved Ohio State from +400 to +480, and it now ranks behind Notre Dame there. The timing helps the Buckeyes. They're off this week and then visit No. 16 USC on October 31. Fahey's first start will be in a hostile Big Ten road game, and that's where Ohio State's price will move next. Follow the Ohio State football picks page for the week-of line.

Notre Dame: a loss that raised its price

Notre Dame lost at BYU and still got shorter at DraftKings, moving from +500 to +450 to become the book's favorite. The way the game ended explains part of it, and the schedule explains the rest. The Irish keep their Miami game, their path to an at-large bid, and a roster the market rates among the best in the country. The catch is that Notre Dame plays as an independent and can't win a conference title. With one loss, every remaining game is effectively a must-win. The Irish visit Navy on October 31.

Georgia, Indiana and the rest of the one-loss group

Georgia lost at home to Auburn, 27-24, on a last-second field goal and barely moved in the market, from +490 to +500 at FanDuel. Indiana lost a four-point game at Ohio State on a disputed sideline call and actually got shorter, from +1000 to +850, because so many teams ahead of it lost too. Josh Hoover has 18 touchdown passes and no interceptions. In a 12-team bracket, one loss to Ohio State is easy to overcome.

There's a split here worth noting. Ole Miss (5-1) rose from +2700 to +1700 at FanDuel after beating Missouri, while Alabama (5-2) and Texas (4-2) each lost two straight and drifted to +1100 and +1600. Those three teams play in a crowded SEC race, and two of them meet on Saturday night.

The Week 8 Games That Will Move the CFP Board

Ohio State, Notre Dame and Georgia are all idle on October 24, so the movement this weekend will come from below them. Here are the games with the most at stake.

Lines per FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM listings for Ole Miss-Texas; opening line for Houston-Utah; total per Sports Illustrated for Indiana-Michigan. Dashes indicate no confirmed line at publication.

Ole Miss at Texas carries the most title-odds weight. Kalshi has Texas at about 57% to win, which matches a 3-point home favorite. Texas has lost two straight to unranked teams, and the market still makes the Longhorns the favorite. Bettors are trusting the roster over the recent results. Indiana at Michigan is the best spot for the opposite argument. The Hoosiers are 1-6 against the spread, which means the market has overrated them almost every week even while they've won.

Our college football picks page posts the full Week 8 card, the Week 8 picks page covers the full slate, and the Ole Miss football picks and Texas football picks pages cover the Saturday night game in detail.

What the CFP Committee Will See on November 3

The committee's first top 25 comes out Tuesday, November 3. It will rank six times before selections on December 6. The format stays at 12 teams for 2026-27. The four highest-ranked teams get first-round byes, seeds 5 through 12 play on campus, and the championship game is January 25, 2027, in Las Vegas.

Three things decide whether the gap between polls and prices closes:

Strength of schedule. The committee weighs who you beat, not just whether you won. That favors the one-loss SEC and Big Ten teams and works against Miami's ACC schedule, which is exactly what the futures market has priced in.

Quarterback health. The committee can take player availability into account. A Fahey-led Ohio State loss at USC would test whether that consideration shows up in the Buckeyes' ranking.

The Big 12's automatic bid. If BYU, Texas Tech and Utah split games among themselves, the Big 12 likely ends up with one bid, and the two longer-priced teams lose most of their value. If one of them runs the table, the 45-1 price on BYU will look cheap in hindsight.

For the full board, see our college football national championship odds tracker and the College Football Playoff picks page.

The Bottom Line for Bettors

Polls reward what a team has done. Prices reward what bookmakers think a team will do. Right now, the difference is concentrated in the five undefeated teams, and above all BYU and Miami. History mostly favors the market, which is why the one-loss favorites hold the shortest prices. But this season has already produced the most chaotic Saturday the AP poll has ever recorded. Before you bet futures on a 6-0 team at 45-1, check its remaining schedule and its quarterback situation.

The Best Bet on Sports has been limited at six major U.S. sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics and ESPN BET) for winning on live action, with a verified $367,520+ in profit since 2005. Every result is posted on our results page. If you're comparing football handicappers or other sports handicappers before the conference title races heat up, start there. Our football picks hub covers both college and NFL, and more analysis is on the blog.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is No. 1 in the college football rankings right now?

Miami is No. 1 in the AP poll released October 18, 2026, at 6-0, with 40 first-place votes. BYU (6-0) is second with 20 first-place votes, followed by Ohio State (6-1), Notre Dame (6-1) and Georgia (6-1). The College Football Playoff committee has not released a ranking yet. Its first top 25 comes out Tuesday, November 3.

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 college football national championship?

It depends on the sportsbook. After Week 7, FanDuel had Ohio State as the favorite at +430, followed by Notre Dame (+490), Georgia (+500) and Miami (+650). DraftKings had Notre Dame first at +450, with Ohio State at +480, Georgia at +510 and Miami at +600. Ohio State's price has been rising since quarterback Julian Sayin hurt his arm, so check a current number.

Why is BYU ranked No. 2 but priced at 45-1 to win the title?

Polls reward BYU's 6-0 record and its 28-24 win over Notre Dame. Sportsbooks see a team that has to get through a Big 12 with two other undefeated top-10 teams, Texas Tech and Utah, likely for a single automatic bid. The Notre Dame win was also clouded by an officiating error: the Big 12 admitted that the Irish should have had one second left for a final play.

How long will Julian Sayin be out for Ohio State?

Ohio State coach Ryan Day said on October 20 that Sayin will miss several weeks with an injury to his right arm, suffered late in the 19-15 win at Indiana. Day did not give a specific return date. Luke Fahey becomes the starter, and Tavien St. Clair is expected to back him up. Ohio State has a bye this week and visits USC on October 31.

What happened at the end of the BYU vs. Notre Dame game?

BYU won 28-24 on October 17. On the final play, CJ Carr's pass to Jaden Greathouse fell incomplete with one second showing on replays, but the game was ruled over. The Big 12 later said its replay crew should have restored that second, giving Notre Dame one more play, and announced a review of its end-of-game officiating process. The result stands.

How does the 2026 College Football Playoff work?

The CFP stays at 12 teams for 2026-27. Conference champions earn automatic bids, and the four highest-ranked teams receive first-round byes regardless of conference title status. Seeds 5 through 12 play first-round games on the higher seed's campus. The committee releases six rankings, starting November 3, and makes its selections on December 6. The championship game is January 25, 2027, in Las Vegas.

Which college football games this weekend matter most for the playoff?

On Saturday, October 24, the biggest is No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas (7:30 p.m. ET), where Texas is about a 3-point favorite. No. 14 Houston at No. 10 Utah (10:15 p.m. ET, Utah -6.5) is the first major test for an undefeated Big 12 team. Also worth watching: No. 6 Indiana at Michigan and Texas A&M at No. 13 Alabama. Ohio State, Notre Dame and Georgia are all idle.