Edwards' Knee Surgery: Wolves Line

Anthony Edwards' right knee surgery took about two points off the Timberwolves in the betting market. Before ESPN's Shams Charania reported on Tuesday that Edwards would have an arthroscopic procedure and miss up to two months, one sportsbook listed Minnesota -5.5 against Golden State for Wednesday night. By Wednesday morning, the line across several sources was Minnesota -3.5, and the total had risen from 224.5 to 228.5. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years, much of it by reading how lines react to news like this before and during games.

The timing is brutal for Minnesota. On Monday night, Edwards played 41 minutes and scored 47 points in a 127-125 overtime loss to Cleveland after being listed as questionable with what the team called right knee maintenance. A day later, the knee was headed for surgery.

What Is Anthony Edwards' Injury?

According to ESPN's Charania, Edwards will have an arthroscopic procedure on the right knee and is expected to miss up to two months. CBS Sports, citing ESPN, reported the surgery for Thursday. The Athletic's Jon Krawczynski reported that the team views surgery as a way to address the problem as soon as possible and hopes to have Edwards back sometime in December.

The knee has a history. Edwards was seen grabbing it during Sunday's win over Toronto. Last season, Edwards dealt with runner's knee in the same right leg late in the regular season and missed 21 games, a career high. In last spring's first-round series against Denver, Edwards missed the Game 6 clincher with a knee hyperextension, though outlets differ on which knee that was.

The team had not released an official prognosis as of Wednesday morning. Treat the two-month window as a reported estimate, not a set return date.

How Much Did the Timberwolves Line Move?

Here is the Warriors at Timberwolves line for Wednesday, October 28, 8 p.m. ET at Target Center, from sources that posted before and after the news.

The before and after numbers come from different books, so the exact size of the move is approximate. The direction is not in doubt. Minnesota went from a solid favorite at roughly -240 to a modest one near -150 to -162. Dimers' model still makes the Timberwolves 62.9 percent to win, with a projected score of 116-112.

The total is the more surprising part. Removing a player averaging 33.3 points a game would normally push a total down. Instead, it rose by as much as four points. One reasonable reading is that the market expects Minnesota's elite defense to suffer less than its offense and Golden State's depleted roster to get more open looks, but different books may simply have opened at different numbers. We would not read too much into the total until more books post.

How Good Was Edwards Before the Injury?

Through the first week of the season, Edwards was averaging 33.3 points a game, led the league with 18 three-pointers on 40 percent shooting, and had already scored 45 and 47 in separate games, according to CBS Sports. Minnesota started 3-1 with the league's second-ranked defense.

That context matters for the line. The market did not take two points off a role player. It took two points off one of the most productive scorers in the league, which tells you how much faith bookmakers have in the rest of this roster and in Minnesota's defense.

Who Replaces Edwards for the Timberwolves?

Minnesota has more depth than in past seasons, but much of it is new together.

Donte DiVincenzo remains out while rehabbing a torn Achilles. The early data on Ball without Edwards is thin and not encouraging: CBS Sports, citing Cleaning the Glass, reported a bottom-10 offensive rating across 74 non-garbage possessions with Ball on the floor and Edwards off it. That is far too small a sample to judge, but it is the closest thing to evidence the market has right now.

When Edwards missed Game 6 against Denver last spring, McDaniels scored 32 points with 10 rebounds and Minnesota closed out the series. One game does not make a trend, but it is a reminder that teams often play hard in the first few games without a star.

What Does This Mean for Warriors vs. Timberwolves Tonight?

Golden State comes in 1-3 and short-handed. Jimmy Butler is out with an ACL injury and Moses Moody is out with a leg injury, Yaxel Lendeborg is questionable with foot soreness, and Kristaps Porzingis is not with the team amid reports that Golden State is shopping Porzingis. The Warriors' one win came on the road in Denver.

So the line now pits a Minnesota team learning to play without its best scorer against a Warriors team missing several of its own pieces. A two-point move is a modest adjustment for a player of Edwards' production, which suggests the market is leaning on Minnesota's defense and depth. We are not taking a side on tonight's game.

How Does Edwards' Absence Affect the Timberwolves' Schedule?

After Golden State, Minnesota hosts the Clippers on Friday, visits San Antonio on Saturday, hosts Milwaukee on November 2, then goes to Houston and New Orleans. CBS Sports noted that 16 of Minnesota's next 26 games are at home, including an eight-game homestand in November. The home-heavy stretch softens the blow, and it also means the Timberwolves will be favored in many games where their lines are now built on a roster that has barely played together.

Those are the games where line movement and early-season numbers can disagree the most. A team that covers its first three or four games without a star often sees its lines tighten quickly. A team that struggles sees them drift. The first week without Edwards will tell bettors more than any preseason projection.

What Happens to Edwards' MVP and Award Odds?

We did not find updated MVP odds from a source we could confirm after the news. But the math is unforgiving. Under the 65-game minimum the NBA has used for MVP and All-NBA eligibility since the 2023-24 season, a player can miss only 17 games. A two-month absence would cost Edwards well more than that, which would make an MVP ticket on Edwards close to worthless unless the rules or the timeline change. Anyone holding one should check the current rule and the official timeline before assuming any value.

How Do Basketball Handicappers Approach Injuries Like This?

Experienced basketball handicappers separate the news from the number. The news is that a 33-point scorer is out for two months. The number is what the market already charged for it, about two points tonight. The bet, if there is one, lives in the gap between how much the team actually loses and how much the line says it loses, and that gap usually shows up over several games rather than one.

That is the same approach we took with Jalen Williams' injury in Oklahoma City and Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs in Orlando. Our NBA handicappers page explains how we handle the league, and our NBA picks page covers our daily approach. For the broader method, see our guide to basketball handicapping.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How long will Anthony Edwards be out?

Edwards is expected to miss up to two months after an arthroscopic procedure on the right knee, according to ESPN's Shams Charania. The Athletic's Jon Krawczynski reported that Minnesota hopes to have Edwards back sometime in December. The team had not released an official prognosis as of Wednesday morning, October 28.

How did Anthony Edwards' injury affect the Timberwolves' odds?

The Wednesday line against Golden State moved about two points. Before the news, one book listed Minnesota -5.5 with a -240 moneyline. By Wednesday morning, several sources had Minnesota -3.5, with moneylines between -150 and -162. The total rose from 224.5 to 228.5 at those sources.

What happened to Anthony Edwards' knee?

The issue is in the right knee, which Edwards was seen grabbing during Sunday's win over Toronto and which the team listed for maintenance before Monday's game. Edwards still played 41 minutes and scored 47 points in a 127-125 overtime loss to Cleveland. Edwards dealt with runner's knee in the same leg late last season.

Who will start for the Timberwolves without Anthony Edwards?

Minnesota has not announced a lineup. LaMelo Ball, acquired from Charlotte in June, and Jaden McDaniels are the leading options to absorb Edwards' usage, with Terrence Shannon Jr., Ayo Dosunmu, Jonathan Kuminga and Bones Hyland in line for more minutes. Donte DiVincenzo remains out with a torn Achilles.

Can Anthony Edwards still win MVP this season?

It looks very unlikely. Under the 65-game minimum the NBA has used for MVP and All-NBA eligibility since 2023-24, a player can miss only 17 games. A two-month absence would put Edwards well past that, unless the timeline turns out to be much shorter than reported.

Who are the Timberwolves playing without Edwards?

After hosting Golden State on October 28, Minnesota hosts the Clippers on October 30, visits San Antonio on October 31, hosts Milwaukee on November 2, then visits Houston and New Orleans. Sixteen of the Timberwolves' next 26 games are at home, including an eight-game homestand in November.

Should you bet against the Timberwolves without Edwards?

Not automatically. The market already took about two points off Minnesota for the first game, and the team still has the league's second-ranked defense and real depth. The better approach is to watch how the rotation performs in the first few games and compare that with how the lines adjust.