Blazers 5-0 on the Road: How to Bet Portland Now

The Portland Trail Blazers are 6-1, 5-0 on the road and 5-2 against the spread, and they've done most of it without Ja Morant. Since Morant strained his hamstring on October 29, Portland has won three straight road games, at Utah by 22, at Denver by 8 and at Phoenix by 13. Tonight the Blazers are 2.5-point underdogs at the 7-2 Lakers at FanDuel, with the total at 232.5. Then they come home Saturday to face San Antonio on the second night of a back-to-back. The question is whether the market has caught up to how this team is playing. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years, and early-season gaps between a team's price and its play are where a lot of that came from.

When Morant went down, we wrote that Portland's line barely moved, just half a point at Utah. The market was saying the Blazers without Morant were nearly the same team. Three road wins later, that looks like it was right, or even a little low on Portland.

How Have the Blazers Started the Season?

Here's every regular-season game:

Portland has scored 121.9 points per game and allowed 110.7, a margin of about +11 per game. On the road, the Blazers have won by an average of 11.6 points. Their only loss came at home against Memphis, the game in which Morant got hurt.

According to FanDuel Research, Portland is 5-2 against the spread and has gone over the total in three of seven games. Its games have averaged about 232.6 combined points, almost exactly tonight's total.

Why Is Portland Winning Without Morant?

Three things stand out.

Deni Avdija is running the offense. Avdija is averaging 23.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists, per FanDuel Research. He led or shared the team lead in scoring in five of seven games and had 12 assists in Wednesday's win at Phoenix. Over the summer, coach Micah Nori told Avdija he'd be used more in secondary actions and less on the ball, a plan meant to cut his turnovers. Jason Quick reported, as cited by Hoops Rumors, that the early returns on both fronts have been promising.

Donovan Clingan is controlling the glass. Clingan is averaging 12 points and 10.6 rebounds and pulled down 18 boards at Denver. When Portland wins the rebounding battle, it gets extra possessions, and that's showed up in its margins.

The guard depth absorbed the loss. Damian Lillard (20.1 points) and Jrue Holiday (13.4 points, 4.1 assists) have handled the ball without Morant. Holiday had 10 assists at Denver. Portland didn't lose its playmaking when Morant went out; it spread it around.

There's a fourth thing that's harder to measure. Hoops Rumors cited Quick's reporting on Nori holding players to a high standard, including calling an angry timeout while up 19 in the fourth quarter at Phoenix after a missed defensive assignment. That kind of focus can matter in close road games.

How Should You Bet Blazers vs. Lakers Tonight?

The game is Friday at 10 p.m. ET at Crypto.com Arena, an NBA Cup group-stage game. FanDuel has the Lakers -2.5, with Portland at +132 on the moneyline and the total at 232.5. A DraftKings line reported by RealGM was Lakers -3.5, with the total at 238.5, so shop around.

Portland already won in Los Angeles, 136-129 on October 27. Morant played in that game and scored 23. The Blazers don't have him now, but they've covered without him.

The Lakers have their own case. Doncic is averaging 38.5 points, Austin Reaves 23.3, and the Lakers have won three straight. They're also 3-2 against the spread at home and have hit the over in four of five home games. A high-scoring Lakers home game is the most likely way Portland's defense gets tested.

Here's how we'd think about it:

1. The spread is small for a reason. At 2.5 points, the market is pricing the Lakers as only slightly better at home. Portland's road form says that's fair. 2. Watch the total. Tonight's 232.5 is close to Portland's scoring average. The Lakers' home overs push one way, Portland's 3-4 over record the other. The two books we checked were six points apart on the total, so the number you get matters more than the side you pick. 3. Don't overpay for the streak. A 5-0 road record is a small sample. Some of it came against weak teams, including Utah at 1-7.

What About Saturday Against the Spurs?

Saturday's home game against San Antonio is the second night of a back-to-back, with a flight from Los Angeles to Portland in between. That's the spot where a short rotation gets tested. Morant is out, and Hoops Rumors reported that Vit Krejci is expected to miss significant time, so Portland is already thinner than it was on opening night.

We won't quote a line for Saturday yet, because it won't be set until after tonight. But two things will matter:

• Minutes tonight. If Avdija, Lillard and Clingan play heavy minutes in a close game in Los Angeles, Saturday's line should account for it. If it doesn't, that's a gap.
• The market's read on the streak. If Portland wins tonight, Saturday's number could reflect a 7-1 team more than a tired one.

How Long Can the Road Streak Last?

Portland's schedule gets harder fast. After Saturday, the Blazers host Oklahoma City twice, November 10 and 11, then play at Sacramento on the 13th and start a five-game road trip at Minnesota on November 16, with two games there, followed by Milwaukee, New York and Philadelphia.

That trip will tell us more than the first seven games. A team that wins at Utah and Phoenix hasn't proven it can win at Madison Square Garden. If the market keeps pricing Portland on its record, the big road trip is where the record and the price can split.

How Does a Basketball Handicapper Read a Hot Start?

A good nba handicapper separates what's repeatable from what's luck. For Portland, Avdija's role and Clingan's rebounding look repeatable. A 5-0 road record against an uneven schedule might not be. The job is to price each part on its own.

Our basketball handicappers page explains how we rate rotations and adjust for small early-season samples. Our NBA picks page has the current card, and our basketball handicapping page walks through the process. If you're deciding whether to buy sports picks from anyone, our daily sports betting picks page shows what a real daily process looks like.

What We Don't Know Yet

We don't know Morant's return date. The team said he'd be re-evaluated four weeks after the injury, which points to late November at the earliest. We don't have the Saturday line. And seven games, five of them on the road, is a small sample for any team. The point is the method: price Portland on how it's winning, not just on the fact that it's winning.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Trail Blazers' record this season?

Portland is 6-1, including 5-0 on the road. The Blazers' only loss was a 124-103 home loss to Memphis on October 29. They've won three straight since, at Utah, Denver and Phoenix.

Are the Blazers good against the spread?

Yes, so far. FanDuel Research has Portland at 5-2 against the spread. The Blazers have gone over the total in three of seven games, and their games have averaged about 232.6 combined points.

What is the spread for Blazers vs. Lakers tonight?

FanDuel has the Lakers as 2.5-point favorites, with Portland at +132 on the moneyline and the total at 232.5. A DraftKings line reported by RealGM was Lakers -3.5 with a total of 238.5. The game is Friday at 10 p.m. ET in Los Angeles.

Is Ja Morant playing for the Blazers?

No. Morant suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring strain on October 29 and was set to be re-evaluated in four weeks, which points to late November at the earliest. Portland is 3-0 without him.

Who is leading the Blazers without Morant?

Deni Avdija. He's averaging 23.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists and has led or shared the team lead in scoring in five of seven games. Donovan Clingan is averaging 10.6 rebounds, and Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday have handled the ball.

Should I bet the Blazers on Saturday against the Spurs?

Wait for the line. Saturday is the second night of a back-to-back after tonight's game in Los Angeles, and Portland is short-handed with Morant and Vit Krejci out. Check how many minutes the starters play tonight before deciding whether Saturday's number accounts for it.

Can the Blazers keep winning on the road?

The schedule gets harder. After two home games against Oklahoma City and a trip to Sacramento, Portland starts a five-game road trip on November 16 with two games at Minnesota, then Milwaukee, New York and Philadelphia. That trip will show whether the road form is real.