NFL Trade Deadline Grades: Every Deal's Odds Impact

The 2026 NFL trade deadline's biggest betting impact wasn't on a futures board. It was the Raiders' Week 10 line. Kirk Cousins went back to Minnesota for a 2027 third-round pick, rookie Fernando Mendoza takes over in Las Vegas, and the Seahawks-Raiders spread moved 3 points. Jacksonville spent the most, a first and two seconds, and its Super Bowl price shortened from +950 to +750.

The deadline closed at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 10. NFL.com counted 18 in-season trades, down from 22 a year ago. None was a true blockbuster, and the best running back on the market, Jonathan Taylor, stayed in Indianapolis. A quiet deadline can still move a lot of markets, though, and this one moved weekly spreads more than it moved title odds.

Two weeks ago our deadline preview ranked the likely sellers and buyers before anything happened. This follow-up grades each completed deal on one question: which betting market did it actually change? At the end we score our own preview.

Every Deadline-Week Trade

Compensation per ESPN's deadline tracker and NFL.com, November 9-10, 2026. The Broncos-Chargers deal for Daiyan Henley was agreed to and then called off. It is covered below.

The Deals, Graded by Betting Impact

1. Raiders: the seller's line moved the most

Grade for bettors: A. Las Vegas was 4-5 when it sent Cousins home, and the trade handed the offense to Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick in April. His only regular-season action so far is a relief appearance, 6 of 8 for 48 yards, per NFL.com. Seattle opened as a road favorite, and the line moved 3 points once Mendoza was named the starter, according to CBS Sports. Fox Sports lists it at Seahawks -6.5 with a total of 40.5.

A 3-point move is worth more to a bettor than any futures change on this list. Three is the most common margin in the NFL, so the number crossed the most valuable key spot there is. Our Mendoza draft breakdown covered the market's view of him in April. His next two games are at Denver and at Cleveland, and those lines will be set off Sunday's tape.

2. Vikings: a floor, not a ceiling

Grade: B. Minnesota had one of the league's best defenses and one of its worst offenses. Kyler Murray's starting run lasted six games. Carson Wentz didn't fix it, and J.J. McCarthy was dealt to the Giants on September 28 for a 2027 fifth. Cousins is 38 and went 50-37-1 in his first Minnesota stint from 2018 to 2023, with two playoff trips. Murray is now the backup.

The market treated the trade as a fix for the floor, not a title-level move. The Vikings lost at Buffalo in Week 9 and drifted from +1900 to +2400 on the Super Bowl board in the consensus table published by Sports Betting Dime on November 10. Cousins' first start is Sunday at Green Bay, a 3-point Packers favorite at most books, with a total of 41.5. The Minnesota Vikings picks page tracks that number into kickoff.

3. Jaguars: the only all-in buyer

Grade: B-plus. Jacksonville was 6-2 after a 33-10 win over Baltimore. It then spent a 2027 first, a 2027 second, a 2029 second, a 2028 fifth and a conditional sixth on three defenders. Bates is a starting safety. Davis and Godchaux remake the interior of the line.

The Jaguars' price went from +950 to +750 over the same week, a move from about 9.5% to 11.8% in implied probability. Be careful about how much of that to credit to the trades. Sports Betting Dime credited the scoring offense (28.0 points per game, 68.4% in the red zone) and the Ravens win. SI credited the defensive additions. Both happened in the same seven days, so nobody can separate them cleanly. A front office paying this much is still telling you it thinks the AFC is open. The Jacksonville Jaguars picks page has their Week 11 trip to the Giants, where lookahead lines show Jacksonville -6.

4. Chiefs: the need we flagged, filled cheaply

Grade: B. Kansas City entered the week 6-2 and had been calling around for a receiver since October. It paid a 2027 fourth and fifth for Downs, who had 33 catches for 354 yards and a touchdown in Indianapolis, and got a seventh back. The Chiefs' title price didn't move. They sat at +1000 before and after. That is normal for a slot receiver, and it's why the bet is in Downs' receiving props, not in Kansas City futures. Lookahead lines for Week 11 have the Chiefs at about -14.5 against Arizona.

5. 49ers: depth for the favorite

Grade: C-plus. San Francisco, 7-1 and the Super Bowl favorite at +540, added Keenan Allen, 34, for a sixth-round pick. Two weeks earlier it had acquired DeForest Buckner from the Colts. Allen arrives with the receiver room banged up. A sixth-round price signals a short-term fill-in, and the market barely moved. The 49ers shortened from +580 to +540, mostly on a 38-17 win over the Raiders. The date to circle is Week 11: Vikings at 49ers on Sunday night, with lookahead lines at San Francisco -3.5 and a total of 46.5. It will be Cousins' second start back, against the team with the shortest title price in the league.

6. Colts: sold the pieces, kept the prize

Grade: D. Indianapolis moved Downs and Allen at the deadline, after earlier deals sent Buckner to San Francisco and Quenton Nelson to Seattle. NFL.com tallied the deadline-week return as a third, two fourths, two fifths and a sixth. The Colts didn't move Taylor. Per NFL.com, no suitor would meet the asking price, and NFL Network reported the Colts wanted a McCaffrey-level return. The Super Bowl price drifted from +50000 to +100000. The bettor's angle is the Colts' totals. Two veteran receivers are gone, and Taylor is still carrying the offense.

The Trade That Didn't Happen

The strangest story of the week came after the deadline closed. Denver, leading the AFC West, agreed to send a 2027 fourth and a 2028 fifth to the winless Chargers for linebacker Daiyan Henley, pending a physical. ESPN reported that the Broncos found an issue with one of Henley's knees, tried to renegotiate the compensation, and called the deal off when the two sides couldn't agree.

Jim Harbaugh called it a loophole and said teams "should not have the ability to do that." Chargers GM Joe Hortiz said he expects a rule proposal at the league meetings in March. The Broncos said they wished Henley well. For bettors, the result is that Denver's linebacker room and the 0-8 Chargers' defense stay exactly as they were.

Cincinnati had its own collapse. CBS Sports reported that the Bengals agreed to a sixth-round pick for Eagles edge rusher Arnold Ebiketie and then backed out. The reason was compensatory-pick math: taking on his contract would have cost them a 2027 third-round compensatory pick.

How the Futures Board Moved

Odds are consensus lines from Sports Betting Dime, published November 10, 2026, comparing that day with the previous week. Records per StatMuse and Fox Sports standings. The "before" column is the week before the deadline, so each move includes a game result as well as any trade.

The biggest mover on the board, Green Bay, made no trade. The Packers went from +3000 to +2100 on results alone. Every week Super Bowl prices react more to wins and losses than to transactions, and this deadline didn't change that. We made the same case in our Super Bowl contenders ranking a week before the deadline. You can track the full board on our Super Bowl 2027 odds page.

Scorecard: Our Preview vs. What Happened

We published a ranked sellers' and buyers' board on October 27. Here is how it held up.

That's six hits and three misses, and two of the hits came through different players than we named. The biggest miss was leaving off Jacksonville and Minnesota, the two teams that changed the most. Neither was on our buyers' board. Most deadline previews are written from rumor lists, and the teams that act are often the ones that never show up in a rumor.

What to Bet This Week and Next

Week 10 lines per Fox Sports (bet365) and CBS Sports. Week 11 lookahead lines per SportsLine and 4for4. Lines move. Check a live book before betting.

A few principles hold across all five games. A newly acquired player rarely plays a full snap count in his first game, so props set on his old role tend to run high. A rookie quarterback's first start usually means a conservative game plan, which is part of why Seattle-Las Vegas carries a total of only 40.5. Cousins has an edge most midseason arrivals don't: six seasons in the same building. Our NFL picks against the spread cover every Week 10 side, and the NFL player props page tracks the receivers who changed teams.

The Best Bet on Sports has been limited at six major U.S. sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics and ESPN BET) for winning on live action, with a verified $367,520+ in profit since 2005. Follow the $10,000-to-$100,000 challenge on our results page, and join the newsletter, live stream and Discord on our join page. If you are comparing football handicappers or other sports handicappers for the stretch run, start with the record. This week's full card is on our Week 10 NFL picks page and the NFL picks hub, the college football picks page has Saturday's slate, and more analysis is on the blog.

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Frequently Asked Questions

When was the 2026 NFL trade deadline?

The 2026 NFL trade deadline was Tuesday, November 10, at 4 p.m. ET, after Week 9. NFL.com counted 18 trades during the season, compared with 22 in 2025. Most of the final-week deals happened on Monday, November 9, and Tuesday, November 10. Jacksonville made three of them by itself.

What did the Vikings give up for Kirk Cousins?

Minnesota sent Las Vegas a 2027 third-round pick for Cousins, 38, who played for the Vikings from 2018 to 2023 and went 50-37-1 as their starter. Kyler Murray, who started six games for Minnesota this season, becomes the backup. J.J. McCarthy had already been traded to the Giants on September 28 for a 2027 fifth-round pick.

Who is the Raiders' quarterback after the Cousins trade?

Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft, starts for Las Vegas, beginning with Seattle in Week 10. Before that he had one relief appearance, going 6 of 8 for 48 yards. The line moved 3 points toward Seattle once he was named the starter, and Fox Sports lists the Seahawks at -6.5 with a total of 40.5.

What did the Jaguars trade for at the deadline?

Jacksonville acquired safety Jessie Bates III from Atlanta for a 2027 second and a 2028 fifth, defensive tackle Jordan Davis from Philadelphia for a 2027 first and a 2029 second, and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux from New Orleans for a 2028 conditional sixth. The Jaguars were 6-2, and their Super Bowl odds shortened from +950 to +750 that week.

Why was the Daiyan Henley trade called off?

Denver agreed to send a 2027 fourth and a 2028 fifth to the Chargers for Henley, pending a physical. ESPN reported the Broncos found an issue with one of his knees and tried to renegotiate. When the teams couldn't agree, the trade was canceled. Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh called it a loophole that the league should close.

Did the trade deadline change Super Bowl odds?

Only modestly. Jacksonville moved from +950 to +750 and Chicago from +950 to +800, but those moves also included game results. Kansas City stayed at +1000 after adding Josh Downs. The biggest mover of the week, Green Bay (+3000 to +2100), made no trade at all. Weekly spreads, such as the Raiders' 3-point move, changed more.

Did the Colts trade Jonathan Taylor?

No. Indianapolis kept Taylor after no team met its asking price, which NFL Network described as a McCaffrey-level return. The Colts did sell receivers Josh Downs to Kansas City and Keenan Allen to San Francisco, after earlier trading DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson. Their Super Bowl odds drifted to +100000.