NFL's 4-0 Teams: Why Odds Still Favor the 2-2 Rams

Three NFL teams are 4-0 after Week 4 of the 2026 season — the San Francisco 49ers, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Minnesota Vikings — and the betting market does not rate any of them as the best team in football. DraftKings' Super Bowl board on October 5 had the 2-2 Los Angeles Rams favored at +650 and the 3-1 Buffalo Bills at +750, ahead of the 49ers (+850), the Chiefs (+950) and the Vikings (+2200). In Week 5, San Francisco is a road underdog of 2.5 to 3 points at Seattle, Kansas City is on bye, and Minnesota is favored by only 1.5 points at 1-3 New Orleans. Our ranking of the three perfect records, from most to least real: 49ers, Chiefs, Vikings. A 4-0 start has historically put a team in the playoffs about 84% of the time, but the market is telling you the records overstate at least one of these teams by a wide margin.

A month into the season, the standings and the sportsbooks are telling two different stories. The standings say the NFL has three perfect teams. The futures board says the best team in the league is a .500 club that needed an improbable comeback against Philadelphia to avoid a 1-3 start.

Both can be partly right. Records measure what happened. Prices measure what the market expects to happen next. When those two disagree this sharply in early October, it is worth working out which one you trust — because that decision drives every NFL pick and every futures ticket you make between now and January.

The Board: Records vs. Prices

Here is how the top of the futures market looked on October 5, ahead of Week 5, set against each team's record. Implied probability is the break-even percentage built into the price, before removing the sportsbook's margin.

The gap that jumps out is Minnesota. The Vikings have the same record as San Francisco and Kansas City, but the market prices them at less than half the title probability of either. At +2200 they sit behind four teams that have already lost a game and well behind a Rams team that has lost two.

The second thing worth noticing: no unbeaten team is at the top. That does not happen by accident. Sportsbooks have four weeks of evidence about every one of these teams, and they still made a 2-2 team the favorite. That is a statement about how much weight a 4-0 record deserves when you look at how it was built.

What History Says About 4-0 Starts

A perfect first month is still worth a lot. Per a DraftKings Network study of teams from 1990 onward, 83.7% of NFL teams that started 4-0 reached the playoffs. At the time of that study, every 4-0 team from the previous five seasons had made it, and the most recent to miss was the 2016 Denver Broncos, who lost in Week 5 and finished 9-7.

So the floor is high. Four wins is roughly a quarter of the way to a typical wild-card total, and none of these three teams can lose those games back.

But playoff odds and championship odds are different questions. Getting into a 14-team field is about banking wins. Winning the title is about how good you are in January, and that is the question the futures market is pricing. A team can be 84% to make the field and still be a poor bet to win it.

There is also a reminder this season that early records are noisy. Last year's 14 playoff teams are a combined 30-26 through four weeks, which ESPN Research identified as the lowest winning percentage by the previous season's playoff teams through four weeks in the past 15 years. If last January's teams can look that ordinary for a month, this October's unbeatens can look that dominant for a month too.

1. San Francisco 49ers (4-0): The Most Real

Verdict: built to last, with an injury bill coming due.

The 49ers have the strongest case of the three, and it is not close. Through four weeks they are the only unbeaten team pairing a perfect record with a +58 point differential, and they led the league in both yards per play and third-down efficiency entering Week 5. Brock Purdy has moved into the early MVP conversation. Their Week 4 win, 24-14 over Denver, was controlled rather than survived.

Point differential and efficiency are the two numbers that carry forward best from small samples. A team that wins by a lot and moves the ball efficiently on a per-play basis is usually good; a team that wins close games without those numbers is usually lucky. San Francisco is the first kind.

The problem is the roster. Nick Bosa is out with a calf injury. Ricky Pearsall is done for the season with a knee injury, and rookie receiver De'Zhaun Stribling is expected to miss about 10 weeks with an ankle injury. The 49ers have absorbed those losses so far, but depth erodes over a 17-game season, and the futures price is quietly discounting that.

The Week 5 test: San Francisco plays at Seattle, the reigning champions, and is a 2.5 to 3-point underdog. That line is the market saying that on a neutral field it rates these teams close to even, with home field providing the difference. For a 4-0 team with a +58 differential, being a road underdog to a 3-1 team tells you how much the books are pricing the injuries.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0): Real, but Rebuilt

Verdict: genuinely good, winning in a way nobody expected.

Kansas City is 4-0 and alone atop the AFC West heading into a Week 5 bye, and the engine is not what anyone forecast in August. Kenneth Walker III leads the NFL with 537 rushing yards and six touchdowns through four games. In Sunday's 30-27 win at Las Vegas he ran 22 times for a career-high 177 yards and two scores, including the fourth-quarter push that decided the game.

Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, was hit often in that game and finished 15 of 30 for 225 yards and two touchdowns. With receivers Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton dealing with injuries, the Chiefs have become a ground-first team by necessity, and it is working.

The caution flag is margin. A three-point road win over a Raiders team that still sits at 3-1 is a quality result, but it is not a dominant one, and Kansas City's profile looks more like a team winning the close ones than a team overwhelming people. That is part of why the Chiefs sit at +950 rather than near the top.

The bye is useful context for bettors. Kansas City will not play again until Week 6, which means the market gets a week to watch the rest of the AFC — Buffalo at the Rams on Monday night, Baltimore with an ankle question on Lamar Jackson — and adjust around the Chiefs without the Chiefs doing anything.

3. Minnesota Vikings (4-0): The Market's Biggest Doubt

Verdict: the most fragile perfect record in football.

Minnesota is the story of the season so far, and the market does not believe it. The numbers explain why.

The Vikings have won with defense, special teams and a kicker. According to ESPN, since Week 2 the offense has had 32 possessions and scored one offensive touchdown. Over the past three weeks, special teams have accounted for 42 points against seven from the offense. Will Reichard is 12 for 12 on field goals. The defense, meanwhile, leads the league at 12.8 points allowed per game and has allowed two touchdowns over opponents' last 40 possessions.

The Week 2 and Week 4 wins were 9-3 over Chicago and 15-10 over Miami — two games without an offensive touchdown. ESPN noted the last team to start 4-0 with multiple touchdown-less games was the Chicago Cardinals in 1923. Through four weeks, Minnesota ranks 28th in EPA per play and last in the NFL in offensive success rate, per SI's betting preview.

None of that makes the Vikings bad. Elite defense is real, and it can carry a team a long way. But defensive performance and field-goal accuracy are the two things that tend to move back toward average over a season, while an offense that cannot sustain drives tends to stay that way. That combination is exactly what futures markets fade.

The Week 5 test: Minnesota is a 1.5-point favorite at New Orleans, a 1-3 team coming off a 45-24 Monday night loss to Atlanta. The line opened at Vikings -2.5 and has moved toward the Saints. A moneyline around Vikings -130 implies roughly 56.5% — barely better than a coin flip for an unbeaten team against a one-win team. Vikings games have also gone Under in eight of their last 10, which fits everything above.

The Other Number That Says "Don't Trust Records Yet"

The unbeatens are not the only place where the market is ignoring the standings. On Sunday, the Chicago Bears are road favorites at Green Bay, priced between 1.5 and 2.5 points depending on the book. Per Yahoo Sports, it is the first time since 2006 that Chicago has been favored at Lambeau Field. Jacksonville, an underdog in this game back in May, is now laying more than a field goal against Philadelphia in London.

The pattern across the board is the same. Books moved early to price teams on how they are winning, not whether they are winning. For bettors, that is the useful part of this story: the price is already ahead of the record, and if you are betting off the standings, you are a week behind the number.

How to Use This When Betting Football

The practical takeaways are simple, and they apply to every football pick you make this month.

Weight point differential over wins. Four weeks is a small sample, and close wins are mostly noise. San Francisco's +58 tells you more than Minnesota's 4-0.

Be skeptical of special teams and defensive scoring. Field goals, returns and takeaways are real points, but they repeat less reliably than sustained offense. A team leaning on them is a regression candidate.

Watch where the line opens and where it goes. The Vikings opening at -2.5 and drifting to -1.5 is the market voting with money. Movement against an unbeaten team is information, and it matters most when you are making NFL picks against the spread rather than on the moneyline.

Separate playoff odds from title odds. A 4-0 team is a strong bet to make the field. It is not automatically a good futures ticket at a short price.

Don't confuse a story with a price. "Unbeaten" is a headline. Whether it is a bet depends on the number attached to it.

Records will keep changing as we head into the heart of the college football and NFL schedule, and at least one of these three perfect starts should end on Sunday. Our full record — wins, losses, and the days that went badly — is on the results page, and if you want to know how to judge any service selling football picks, our guide to football handicappers and the broader breakdown of sports handicappers walk through what to verify before you pay anyone.

The Best Bet on Sports has been limited on all six major U.S. sportsbooks — FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics and ESPN BET — for winning during live action, with a verified $367,520+ in profit since 2005. More analysis is on the blog.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Which NFL teams are still undefeated in 2026?

After Week 4 of the 2026 season, three teams were unbeaten: the San Francisco 49ers, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Minnesota Vikings, all at 4-0. Kansas City beat Las Vegas 30-27, San Francisco beat Denver 24-14 and Minnesota beat Miami 15-10 to stay perfect. The Chiefs are on bye in Week 5, so the 49ers (at Seattle) and Vikings (at New Orleans) are the two unbeatens who can lose their perfect records on October 11.

What percentage of 4-0 NFL teams make the playoffs?

Historically, about 84% of them. A DraftKings Network study of teams since 1990 found that 83.7% of teams starting 4-0 reached the postseason, and at the time of that study every 4-0 team from the previous five seasons had made it. The most recent 4-0 team to miss in that data was the 2016 Denver Broncos, who lost in Week 5 and finished 9-7. A perfect first month is a strong playoff indicator, but it is a weaker indicator of who wins the Super Bowl.

Who is the Super Bowl favorite after Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season?

On DraftKings as of October 5, the Los Angeles Rams were the favorite at +650 despite a 2-2 record, followed by the Buffalo Bills at +750. The 49ers and Ravens were next at +850, with the Chiefs and Seahawks at +950. The Vikings, despite being 4-0, were priced at +2200. Futures odds move every week, so check a current board before betting.

Why are the 4-0 Vikings only 1.5-point favorites against the 1-3 Saints?

Because the market does not believe Minnesota's offense. Since Week 2, the Vikings have scored one offensive touchdown in 32 possessions, and they rank 28th in EPA per play and last in offensive success rate. Their wins have come from a league-best defense allowing 12.8 points per game, special teams, and a perfect 12-for-12 start from kicker Will Reichard. Those are the factors most likely to regress, so books price Minnesota closer to an average team than its record suggests. The line opened at Vikings -2.5 and moved toward New Orleans.

Are the 49ers the best team in the NFL?

They have the strongest case of the three unbeaten teams. San Francisco has a +58 point differential through four weeks and entered Week 5 leading the league in yards per play and third-down efficiency, with Brock Purdy emerging as an MVP candidate. The concern is injuries: Nick Bosa is out with a calf injury, Ricky Pearsall is out for the season and De'Zhaun Stribling is expected to miss about 10 weeks. The market reflects that by making them 2.5 to 3-point road underdogs at Seattle in Week 5.

How did the Chiefs start 4-0 in 2026?

Mostly on the ground. Kenneth Walker III leads the NFL with 537 rushing yards and six touchdowns through four games, including a career-high 177 yards and two scores in the 30-27 win at Las Vegas. With receivers Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton dealing with injuries, Kansas City has leaned on the run, and Patrick Mahomes went 15 of 30 for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. The Chiefs are on bye in Week 5 and sit alone in first place in the AFC West.

Should you bet on undefeated NFL teams?

Only when the price is right, not because of the record. Undefeated teams attract public money, which can push their lines past fair value. The better approach is to weight point differential and per-play efficiency over wins, discount points from special teams and defensive scores, and watch line movement — a line moving against an unbeaten team is a sign that sharper money disagrees with the record. A 4-0 team is usually a strong bet to make the playoffs, but that does not make every spread involving them a good bet.