Are Early-Season NFL Lines Softer? 11 Seasons Tested

Early-season NFL lines are not measurably softer than late-season lines, despite how often you will hear that September and October are when the books are guessing. Across 2,895 NFL regular-season games from 2015 through 2025, the closing point spread missed the final margin by an average of 9.87 points in Weeks 1 through 4 and 9.89 points in Weeks 15 through 18. The difference across the whole season was a twentieth of a point. The one early-season pattern that did appear, underdogs covering 54.09 percent of the time in the first four weeks, comes with a statistical range that includes losing money and a 2025 season in which it went 28-36. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years, and we would rather show you that than sell you a calendar.

"Bet early, before the books catch up" is one of the most common pitches in the NFL picks business. The reasoning sounds solid: rosters change every offseason, preseason games are useless, and the market has no current-year data to work from in September. By December, the argument goes, everything is priced in.

If that were true, the closing spread should miss by more in the first month than later in the season. We measured it.

How Did We Test Whether Early Lines Are Softer?

We used every NFL regular-season game from 2015 through 2025 in the nflverse game file, which records the closing spread, closing total and final score. We split the season into four windows: Weeks 1-4, Weeks 5-9, Weeks 10-14 and Weeks 15-18.

For each window, we measured how far the closing spread missed the actual margin, how often the final margin landed within a field goal of the spread, how far the closing total missed the final points, and the against-the-spread record of favorites, home teams and road favorites. Pushes were excluded from records. Where we graded underdogs for profit, we used the actual closing spread price for that side, or -110 when the file had none.

The measure that matters most is the average miss. If the books are guessing in September, their guesses should be further from the final scores.

Do Closing Spreads Miss by More Early in the Season?

No. The miss is almost identical in every window.

The early window missed by 9.87 points and the final window by 9.89. We compared Weeks 1-4 against Weeks 10-18 directly and resampled the games 3,000 times. The early window missed by 0.05 points more on average, with a 95 percent range of -0.70 to +0.83 points. Zero sits comfortably in the middle.

Season by season, the early window was the less accurate one in only 4 of 11 years. In 2020, with no preseason games at all, the early-season spread was actually more accurate than the late-season one, missing by 7.94 points against 10.21. If early lines were systematically soft, a season without preseason football should have been the clearest case. It was the opposite.

The total showed a slightly larger early miss, 10.67 points against a full-season 10.43. That is a quarter of a point, and the over rate in Weeks 1-4 was 48.92 percent, almost exactly the full-season 48.87 percent. Nothing there to bet.

Then Why Does It Feel Like the Books Get Better?

Because the spreads themselves get bigger as the season goes on, and bigger spreads look more "right."

In Weeks 1-4, the average closing spread was 4.71 points. By Weeks 15-18, it was 6.09. The gaps between good and bad teams become visible over a season, so the market posts larger numbers. Larger numbers correlate more strongly with final margins: the correlation between spread and result rose from 0.363 in Weeks 1-4 to 0.519 in Weeks 15-18.

That rising correlation is the trap. It looks like the market is learning. But the size of the miss, the number that decides whether a bet wins, did not change. The market's September numbers were just as close to the final scores as its December numbers. What changed is that December games are more lopsided on average, which makes the spreads look more confident.

We covered how large that miss is in how wrong the closing spread actually is. Nearly ten points of uncertainty is built into every NFL game, and it does not shrink as the season goes on.

Is There Any Early-Season Pattern at All?

One, and it is worth looking at carefully.

Favorites covered less often in the first four weeks than at any other point. Flip that around and early-season underdogs went 370-314, a 54.09 percent cover rate. At the real closing prices, a flat bet on every early underdog returned +32.83 units over 684 decided games, or +4.80 percent.

That looks like an edge. Here is why we do not treat it as one.

The resampled 95 percent range for the return runs from -2.67 percent to +12.03 percent. A long-run losing result is inside it. The underdog side was profitable in 8 of 11 seasons, which is better than most published trends, but the most recent season was the worst in the sample by a wide margin. Two seasons, 2019 and 2021, produced most of the profit. Remove just those two and the eleven-year total falls from +32.83 units to +11.83.

There is also a plausible reason it might be fading: the more widely a pattern is discussed, the more early-season underdog money arrives, and the less the number gives away. We cannot prove that from this file. We can say that 2025 is not what a durable edge looks like.

Through Week 4 and Thursday night's Week 5 game in 2026, favorites are 27-33 against the spread. That will be quoted this weekend as proof the pattern is back. It is 60 games.

What About Road Favorites and Home Teams Early?

Neither stood out. Road favorites covered 48.15 percent in Weeks 1-4, against 49.77 percent for the full season. Home teams covered 47.30 percent early and 48.80 percent overall. Both are inside normal variation and well short of a profitable rate in either direction.

The one thing every split had in common was that the closing number was close to the right price. That fits what we found when we tested whether a hot ATS start predicts anything: early-season results feel like information, and the market mostly prices them correctly anyway.

What Does This Mean When You Buy NFL Picks?

It means the calendar is not an edge, and any service selling you one should be asked for proof.

A handicapper who claims to "crush September" is claiming to beat lines that miss by the same amount as December lines. That is possible for a specific handicapper with a specific method, but the season window is not the reason. Ask for the full-season record, graded against the number available when the pick was released, and look at how the late-season weeks went. If the record is concentrated in one month, the most likely explanation is the one we found in the early-underdog data: a stretch of favorable variance that looks like skill until it does not.

When you compare NFL picks against the spread from any source, the NFL expert picks worth paying for are the ones that hold up across the whole season. That is the standard we apply to our own sports handicapping service, and every graded play is posted on our results page. For the full weekly board, see our NFL picks, and for how we approach the slate, our football handicappers page.

The same logic applies as the NBA season opens later this month. Early-season basketball lines get the same "the books are guessing" pitch, and the honest version of the answer is the one above: test it before you pay for it. Our basketball handicappers page explains how we handle the first weeks of an NBA season.

To be precise about that callout: this study uses closing pregame lines and final scores. It contains no in-game prices, so it cannot measure whether live markets are softer early in the season. That is structural reasoning, not a finding from these 2,895 games.

Where This Analysis Stops

Four limits.

This study uses closing lines. Opening lines, posted months earlier for Week 1, may well be softer, and some bettors do find value there. What we tested is the number most people actually bet into, the one available near kickoff.

The NFL regular season changed length in 2021, so Weeks 15-18 contain one fewer week before 2021.

Average miss is one measure of accuracy. A market could miss by the same amount on average and still be biased in a way a specific model exploits. We checked favorites, home teams, road favorites and totals, and found only the underdog pattern discussed above.

And the early-underdog result is a subset of 684 games, found by splitting the season into windows. Its range includes a long-run loss. Treat it as something to keep watching, not something to bet blind.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Are early-season NFL lines softer than late-season lines?

No, not by any measure we could find. From 2015 through 2025, the closing spread missed the final margin by 9.87 points on average in Weeks 1-4 and 9.89 points in Weeks 15-18. The early-season miss was larger than the late-season miss in only 4 of 11 seasons.

Do underdogs cover more often early in the NFL season?

They have, slightly. Underdogs went 370-314 against the closing spread in Weeks 1-4 from 2015 through 2025, a 54.09 percent cover rate and a +4.80 percent return at real prices. The statistical range runs from -2.67 to +12.03 percent, and early underdogs went 28-36 in 2025.

Why do NFL spreads look more accurate late in the season?

Because late-season spreads are larger. The average closing spread grew from 4.71 points in Weeks 1-4 to 6.09 points in Weeks 15-18, so the correlation between spread and final margin rises. The average size of the miss, which decides whether bets win, stayed the same.

Did the 2020 season without preseason games produce softer lines?

No. In 2020, when there were no NFL preseason games, the closing spread in Weeks 1-4 missed the final margin by 7.94 points on average, compared with 10.21 points in Weeks 10-18. That season's early lines were more accurate than its late lines.

Should I trust a handicapper who says they win most in September?

Ask for the full-season record. Early-season lines miss by about the same amount as late-season lines, so a record concentrated in one month is more likely variance than a seasonal edge. Look for a long record graded against the number available when each pick was released.

Do NFL overs or unders hit more early in the season?

Neither by a useful margin. Overs hit 48.92 percent in Weeks 1-4 from 2015 through 2025, compared with 48.87 percent across the full season. The closing total missed by 10.67 points early versus 10.43 overall, a difference of about a quarter of a point.

How are favorites doing against the spread in 2026?

Through Week 4 and Thursday night's Week 5 game, NFL favorites are 27-33 against the spread in 2026, a 45.00 percent cover rate. That matches the historical early-season dip, but 60 games is a very small sample, and favorites covered at about 50 percent later in past seasons.