Super Bowl Odds After Week 8: Contenders Ranked

After Week 8, Buffalo (+550) and San Francisco (+600) are the Super Bowl co-favorites at FanDuel, with Chicago (+800) and Jacksonville (+1000) next. Once the sportsbook margin is removed, those four teams combine for only about 42% of the title probability, so the market expects the champion to come from outside the top four more often than not. The NFC holds about 53% of the no-vig probability.

Eight weeks in, the Super Bowl board has been rearranged by three things: a Bears team that keeps winning, a Jaguars team that keeps blowing people out, and a Ravens season that came apart on one snap. Chicago beat the defending champion Seahawks 34-17 on Monday night in Seattle with newly acquired defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons in the lineup. Jacksonville beat Indianapolis 42-7 and owns the league's best scoring margin. Baltimore lost Lamar Jackson to a thumb injury on the first play of its loss at Buffalo, and its title price fell off a cliff.

This piece ranks the contenders by what the market is actually paying, converts those prices into probabilities, and flags where two major sportsbooks disagree enough to matter. The goal is not a gut-feel power ranking. It is a map of where the price and the team line up, and where they don't.

The Super Bowl Odds Board After Week 8

FanDuel odds from its post-Week 8 Super Bowl table; DraftKings odds as reported by Sports Illustrated on November 2, 2026. Records from the same reports. Implied probability and no-vig share calculated by The Best Bet on Sports. FanDuel's full 32-team board adds up to 119.0% implied probability; DraftKings' adds up to 122.0%.

That last line is the first thing every futures bettor should understand. A Super Bowl market is not a coin flip with a small fee. When 32 prices add up to 119% to 122%, the book is holding roughly 16% to 18% of every dollar in theory. That is several times the margin on a standard point spread. Futures can still be worth betting, but only when you are confident the number is wrong, not when you simply like the team.

What the Board Says in Plain Terms

Three takeaways come straight out of the math.

There is no real favorite. Buffalo's no-vig share is 12.9%. Put another way, the market thinks the top team in the league fails to win the title roughly 87 times out of 100. The top four teams together come to 41.9%, and the top eight come to 65.8%. More than a third of the probability sits with teams ranked ninth or lower.

The NFC is the stronger side of the bracket. Strip out the margin and NFC teams hold 53.1% of the FanDuel probability, AFC teams 46.9%. The DraftKings board shows the same lean at 52.3% to 47.7%. Four of the top seven prices belong to NFC teams, and two of them, the Rams and Seahawks, sit at 4-4 and still rate ahead of 6-2 Denver and 6-1 Minnesota.

Records and prices have split apart. Pittsburgh is 6-2 and in sole possession of first in the AFC North, yet it is 15th on the board. Seattle is .500 and seventh. The market is paying for underlying play and roster quality, not wins in the standings. That gap is where both the opportunities and the traps live.

Tier 1: The Co-Favorites

Buffalo Bills (+550)

Buffalo moved to the top of FanDuel's board after holding Baltimore to 10 points. The Bills are 6-1 and lead the AFC East, and they get the cleanest path of any AFC contender because the conference's other heavyweights are spread across tight divisions. The caution flag is the same one we raised in our NFL division races breakdown: Buffalo's record has run ahead of its scoring margin, and it allowed 197 points through six games. At +550, you are paying for the best quarterback in the conference. That is a fair reason, but not a discount.

San Francisco 49ers (+600)

The 49ers are 6-1, healthier after their Week 8 bye, and own a two-game cushion in the NFC West. DraftKings prices them as the outright favorite at +580. They have the most balanced profile on the board, and their main obstacle is the depth of their own conference. Between San Francisco and a Super Bowl stand Chicago, Detroit, the Rams and Seattle, all priced at +1800 or shorter.

Tier 2: The Risers

Chicago Bears (+800)

No team has moved more over the past month. Sports Illustrated tracked the Bears from +1600 to +1400 earlier in October, and they now sit at +800 at FanDuel after the win in Seattle. Caleb Williams is fourth in the MVP market at +800, and the Simmons trade gave Chicago an All-Pro interior defender, who debuted in the Seattle win. We covered that deal in our Jeffery Simmons trade analysis.

The case against the price is the division. The Bears are 0-2 in the NFC North, which sends two teams to the playoffs in almost any scenario and four with winning records right now. A team that may have to play a road wild card game is not obviously a +800 champion. If you like Chicago, DraftKings' +950 pays 19% more than FanDuel's +800 for the same outcome. Our Chicago Bears picks page has the Week 9 game against Tampa Bay.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1000)

Jacksonville is the most statistically dominant team on this list. It leads the NFL with a +85 scoring margin, is -750 to win the AFC South at BetMGM, and Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdown passes on 14 attempts against the Colts. The two books agree at +1000, which suggests the market has settled on this one.

The schedule makes Thursday important. The Jaguars visit a Ravens team expected to start an undrafted rookie, and they opened as 8.5-point road favorites at DraftKings after the line swung 11.5 points on the Jackson news. We broke down that move in our Lamar Jackson thumb line swing. See the Jacksonville Jaguars picks page for the side.

Tier 3: The Price-Shopping Tier

This is where the books disagree most, and where shopping matters more than picking.

Calculated by The Best Bet on Sports from the odds above.

Kansas City started 5-0 and has lost two straight, including a game against Denver in which it blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead and gave up first place in the AFC West. DraftKings moved the Chiefs from +850 to +950. FanDuel is at +1200. If you think Kansas City's slide is two bad weeks rather than a trend, the longer number is the one to take.

Seattle is the defending champion and 4-4, with losses to Denver, Chicago, San Francisco and Washington. Both books still rate the Seahawks inside the top seven, which says the market trusts their point differential over their record. Our Seattle Seahawks picks page tracks their schedule.

Minnesota is 6-1 but lost at Detroit and ranked 30th in offensive EPA per play in SI's report. Its defense has carried it. That kind of team often looks better in the standings than in the playoff bracket, which is why FanDuel has let the Vikings drift to +2500.

Tier 4: The Records the Market Doesn't Trust

Denver (+1800) is 6-2 and leads the AFC West after the comeback against Kansas City. DraftKings moved the Broncos from +1900 to +1600. Rookie running back Jonah Coleman is second in the Offensive Rookie of the Year market at +550. Our division piece found Denver had won more close games than its scoring supported, and the market still prices it behind the team it just passed. See our Denver Broncos picks for Sunday's home game against Carolina.

Pittsburgh (+3500 to +5000) is the clearest case of a record outrunning its price. The Steelers are 6-2, alone in first in the AFC North, and their defense ranks sixth in EPA per play. DraftKings shortened them from +7000 to +5000 and they are still 15th on FanDuel's board. The market's doubt rests on a division in which Cincinnati has the better scoring profile and four teams have been bunched together all season.

Tier 5: The Fallen

Baltimore's collapse is the biggest move of the season. DraftKings had the Ravens at +1200 the week before and +4000 in SI's November 2 report, which described Jackson as expected to miss at least four weeks. FanDuel's +22500 reflects what came after: surgery, injured reserve, and a coach saying the injury could end Jackson's season. That is the widest gap between the two books on the entire board, and it shows how quickly futures markets reprice once an injury report turns into a surgery report. The Ravens are 4-4 and favored by neither book to make a run.

Further down, the Eagles have lost six straight and sit at +50000 at both books. The Colts fell from +25000 to +80000 at DraftKings after trading Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner and losing 42-7. The Chargers are the league's only winless team and are 0-6-1 against the spread, per Action Network.

How to Use This Board

Shop every futures bet. On the same day, the same Steelers ticket paid $3,500 at one book and $5,000 at another. No handicapping edge in a Super Bowl market is worth more than the difference between those two numbers.

Respect the margin. At 119% to 122% total implied probability, a team has to be meaningfully better than its price for a futures bet to pay off over time. If your opinion is only "they're good," the book has already priced that in.

Bet the conference, not just the title. With the NFC holding a majority of the probability, an AFC team's path to the Super Bowl is relatively softer. The AFC championship odds and NFC championship odds pages are often a better way to back a contender than the outright market. Our full Super Bowl 2027 odds page and NFL futures hub track every move.

Remember Thursday. The Jaguars-Ravens game, Bears-Buccaneers, and Monday night's Bills-Vikings game can all move this board before next Tuesday. Our Week 9 NFL picks cover the full slate, and our NFL picks against the spread page has the weekly sides.

For more weekly analysis, see the main NFL picks hub and our football betting picks. College bettors should note that the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2026 are released tonight; the full slate is on our college football picks page.

The Best Bet on Sports has been limited on six major U.S. sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics and ESPN BET) for winning on live action, with a verified $367,520+ in profit since 2005. Our current $10,000 to $100,000 challenge is posted live every day. If you are comparing football handicappers or other sports handicappers for the second half, check the record first. More NFL analysis is on the blog.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is the favorite to win the Super Bowl after Week 8 of 2026?

It depends on the sportsbook. FanDuel lists the Buffalo Bills as the favorite at +550, with the San Francisco 49ers at +600. DraftKings has San Francisco slightly ahead at +580 and Buffalo at +650. Both teams are 6-1. Once the sportsbook margin is removed, each has only about a 12% to 13% chance of winning the title, so neither is a strong favorite.

What are the Chicago Bears' Super Bowl odds?

The Bears are +800 at FanDuel and +950 at DraftKings after beating the Seattle Seahawks 34-17 on Monday night to move to 6-2. They were +1600 earlier in October. At FanDuel's price, the implied probability is about 11.1%, or 9.3% with the margin removed. The main risk to the price is their 0-2 record in the NFC North.

How do you convert Super Bowl odds into a probability?

For positive American odds, divide 100 by the odds plus 100. For example, +800 becomes 100 divided by 900, or 11.1%. That is the implied probability including the sportsbook's margin. To remove the margin, add up the implied probability of every team in the market and divide each team's figure by that total. FanDuel's 32 teams add up to 119.0%, so the Bears' 11.1% becomes about 9.3%.

Which conference is more likely to win the Super Bowl in 2026?

The NFC, according to the market. With the margin removed, NFC teams hold about 53% of FanDuel's Super Bowl probability and AFC teams about 47%. DraftKings shows a similar split. San Francisco, Chicago, the Rams and Seattle all rank in FanDuel's top seven, while Buffalo is the only AFC team priced shorter than +1000.

Why did the Baltimore Ravens' Super Bowl odds drop so much?

Lamar Jackson injured his right thumb on the first play of Baltimore's Week 8 loss at Buffalo, then needed surgery and went on injured reserve. Backup Tyler Huntley was also hurt. The Ravens moved from +1200 to +4000 at DraftKings in Sports Illustrated's November 2 report and to +22500 at FanDuel. They are 4-4 and now underdogs at home against Jacksonville on Thursday.

Are Super Bowl futures a good bet in November?

They can be, but the margin is high. FanDuel's full Super Bowl board adds up to 119% implied probability and DraftKings' adds up to 122%, compared with about 104.8% on a standard -110 point spread. A futures bet only makes sense when you believe a team is clearly underpriced, and when you take the best available number. Price differences between books are often larger than any handicapping edge.

Which Super Bowl contenders have the biggest odds differences between sportsbooks?

Among teams shorter than +10000, the largest gaps after Week 8 were Pittsburgh (+3500 at FanDuel, +5000 at DraftKings), Tampa Bay (+5500 vs. +7400), Minnesota (+2500 vs. +1900), Kansas City (+1200 vs. +950) and Seattle (+1300 vs. +1050). Baltimore had the widest gap on the full board at +22500 vs. +4000, though the DraftKings figure was reported before Jackson's surgery news.