Simmons Trade: Bears Odds Impact

The Jeffery Simmons trade moved the Chicago Bears' futures odds and left their point spread alone. After the 5-2 Bears sent two first-round picks and a fourth-rounder to Tennessee for the All-Pro defensive tackle on Thursday, Oct. 29, FanDuel shortened Chicago's Super Bowl price from +1400 to +1000 and BetMGM from +1400 to +1100. Monday night's game at Seattle stayed at Seahawks -3, the same number DraftKings posted before the deal. One DraftKings oddsmaker told Covers the trade may eventually be worth about half a point. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years, much of it by reading how prices react to news like this.

The trade landed 12 days before the Nov. 10 deadline and is the biggest move of the season so far. It also gives bettors a clean test of a question that comes up every trade season: when a contender adds a star, which markets move, and does any of them move too far?

What Did the Bears Give Up for Jeffery Simmons?

Chicago sent Tennessee a 2027 first-round pick, a 2027 fourth-round pick and a 2028 first-round pick. Tennessee sent back Simmons and a 2028 fifth-round pick. Tom Pelissero first reported the deal, and Adam Schefter confirmed the full terms, according to Pro Football Rumors.

Simmons is 29 and in an eighth NFL season, with 46.5 career sacks, a career-high 11 in 2025 and four so far in 2026. Simmons was a first-team All-Pro in 2025 and, per the same report, ranks first among defensive tackles in pass rush win rate this season.

The contract is the part Chicago is really buying. Tennessee signed Simmons to a three-year, $105.8 million extension in late June, worth an average of $35.28 million a year through 2030. The 2026 base salary of $13 million is mostly paid already, so this season costs the Bears little. The cap charge rises above $31 million a year starting in 2027.

Why Did Chicago Make the Trade?

The Bears' defense was already good and still missing one piece. Chicago ranks in the top ten in sacks, total defense and scoring defense in 2026, but its pressure without the blitz has been poor. Since the start of last season, the Bears have the fourth-lowest pressure rate in the league when rushing four or fewer, 25 percent, according to ESPN's Courtney Cronin. Chicago also ranks 23rd in interior pass rush win rate this season.

The interior line got thinner before the season, when the Bears traded Gervon Dexter to Atlanta. Chicago then pursued DeForest Buckner, but did not meet Indianapolis' price, and Buckner went to San Francisco earlier in the week. Bears general manager Ryan Poles made an offer for Simmons on Wednesday night, and Tennessee general manager Mike Borgonzi accepted after consulting head coach Robert Saleh and owner Amy Adams Strunk.

The Titans are 1-6 and moving into another rebuild. Borgonzi described the decision as "really hard," and said other trade calls could follow over the next couple of weeks. Our NFL trade deadline buyers and sellers guide, published three days before the trade, listed the Bears as a buyer to watch.

How Much Did the Bears' Super Bowl Odds Move?

Every major book shortened Chicago, but by very different amounts. Here are the prices Covers reported on Oct. 29, with the implied probability of each price (before removing the book's margin).

FanDuel's move tied Chicago with Seattle for the third-best Super Bowl odds on its board. BetMGM had the Bears fourth, behind San Francisco, Buffalo and Kansas City. For context, BetMGM opened the season with Chicago at +2500, according to Sports Odds History, so the Bears had already roughly halved their price before the trade.

The other futures moved too. FanDuel cut the Bears' NFC price from +700 to +500 (12.5 percent to 16.7 percent implied) and their NFC North price from +290 to +230 (25.6 percent to 30.3 percent). BetMGM has Chicago +600 to win the NFC, level with Seattle and behind the 49ers at +250.

The gap between books is the first thing worth noticing. FanDuel added more than twice as much title probability as DraftKings for the same trade. Both cannot be right. If you hold a Bears future, or want one, the difference between +1000 and +1200 is about 20 percent more payout for the same outcome.

Did the Simmons Trade Move the Bears-Seahawks Spread?

No. The Bears play at Seattle on Monday night, Nov. 2, at 8:15 p.m. Eastern. Here is how the line looked before and after the deal.

The two sportsbook rows come from different books, so treat the comparison as approximate. The prediction-market rows, compiled by DeFi Rate from Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini, compare the same venues before and after, and they did not move. Seattle was about a 61.5 percent favorite on Oct. 27 and about 61 to 62 percent on the morning of Oct. 30.

Johnny Avello, director of the DraftKings sportsbook, told Covers that Simmons was not expected to move Chicago's spreads right away and that the trade could eventually be worth about half a point.

Why Would Futures Move When the Spread Doesn't?

Because the two markets price different things. A point spread prices one game. Half a point in one game changes a team's chance to cover by only a couple of percentage points, and a book does not need to move a key number like 3 for that.

A Super Bowl price prices a whole path: the rest of the regular season, seeding and up to four playoff games. A small improvement in each game multiplies over that path, especially in the playoffs, where pass rush matters against good quarterbacks. Futures also attract public money on news, and books often shorten a team after a headline to limit their own exposure, not only because they think the team improved.

The honest read is that both moves can be reasonable at once. The spread market says Simmons does not change Monday's game much. The futures market says Simmons improves Chicago's chance to win a title. Where bettors go wrong is treating the futures move as evidence about Monday, or the unchanged spread as proof the trade did not matter.

What Else Matters for Bears at Seahawks?

Seattle made its own trade this week. The Seahawks acquired guard Quenton Nelson from the Colts for third- and fifth-round picks, with Nelson expected to play left guard and Grey Zabel moving to right guard, per Pro Football Rumors. Both teams spent the week adding linemen, which makes the trench matchup the most changed part of Monday's game.

On the field, the Bears are 5-2 straight up and 5-2 against the spread, the best cover record in the league, with a +37 point differential. Seattle is 4-3 and 2-3-2 against the spread. The under has hit in four of seven games for both teams, according to Sports Illustrated's preview. Chicago's injury report listed Anthony Johnson Jr. as doubtful, several others questionable, and Cole Kmet and Braxton Jones on injured reserve. Seattle listed left tackle Charles Cross as doubtful.

A hot cover record is the most tempting number on this board and the least useful. Our study of teams with hot ATS starts found that a strong early record against the spread predicted almost nothing about the rest of the season, because the market moves toward hot teams. Chicago also travels about 1,730 miles for this game, a distance that our long road trip study found the market already prices correctly.

The reports we reviewed did not confirm whether Simmons will be in uniform Monday or how many snaps the new tackle will play after joining the team midweek. That matters more for this game than the trade itself.

What About the Titans After Trading Simmons?

Tennessee is 1-6 with a -48 point differential and is selling. In the nflverse dataset on Oct. 30, the Titans were 12.5-point underdogs at Cincinnati on Sunday. A rebuilding team losing its best defender sounds like an automatic fade, but the market already knows the Titans are bad. Our new study of bad NFL teams against the spread found that teams with one win or fewer after six games covered 53.08 percent of the time from 2002 through 2025, because spreads tend to overcorrect for losing records.

Should You Bet the Bears After the Trade?

We are not posting a side or a future for this game. The pregame market has stayed put, and the most useful information, how Chicago's interior rush looks against a rebuilt Seattle line, will not exist until the game starts.

If you follow the market week to week, our NFL picks against the spread and football betting picks cover the full card, and every result is posted on our results page. Our football handicappers page explains how we handle news like this, and if you are comparing a sports handicapping service, ask how each one handled the Simmons headline. With the NBA season under way, our basketball handicappers page covers how the same approach applies to basketball injury and trade news.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What did the Bears give up for Jeffery Simmons?

Chicago sent Tennessee a 2027 first-round pick, a 2027 fourth-round pick and a 2028 first-round pick. Tennessee sent back Jeffery Simmons and a 2028 fifth-round pick. The trade was completed on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026, 12 days before the Nov. 10 trade deadline.

How did the Simmons trade change the Bears' Super Bowl odds?

FanDuel moved Chicago from +1400 to +1000, BetMGM from +1400 to +1100, DraftKings from +1400 to +1200 and Caesars from +1300 to +1200, according to Covers. FanDuel's move added about 2.4 percentage points of implied title probability, more than twice DraftKings' change.

Did the Bears-Seahawks spread move after the trade?

No. DraftKings had Seattle -3 before the trade, and BetMGM still had Seattle -3 after it. Prediction markets had Seattle -3.5 and about a 61 percent win probability both before and after. A DraftKings oddsmaker said Simmons might eventually be worth about half a point.

When do the Bears play the Seahawks?

Chicago plays at Seattle on Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, at 8:15 p.m. Eastern at Lumen Field. Seattle was a 3-point favorite with a total of 46.5 at major sportsbooks as of Oct. 29.

What are the Bears' NFC North odds after the Simmons trade?

FanDuel shortened Chicago's NFC North price from +290 to +230, a move from about 25.6 percent to 30.3 percent implied. FanDuel also cut the Bears' NFC price from +700 to +500, and BetMGM lists Chicago at +600 to win the NFC.

What is Jeffery Simmons' contract?

Simmons signed a three-year, $105.8 million extension with Tennessee in late June 2026, averaging $35.28 million a year through 2030. The 2026 base salary of $13 million is mostly paid, and the cap charge rises above $31 million a year starting in 2027.

Should I bet the Bears' futures after the trade?

Shop first. Books disagreed by a wide margin, from +1000 at FanDuel to +1200 at DraftKings and Caesars, which is about a 20 percent difference in payout for the same outcome. The trade improved Chicago's roster, but much of that improvement was priced in within hours.