Score First and Win: NFL Parlay Data

In the NFL, the team that scores first wins about 63 percent of the time, and that one fact sells a lot of "score first and win" bets. Across 2,895 regular-season games from 2015 through 2025, the first team on the scoreboard won 63.18 percent of them. Favorites who scored first won 75.92 percent. But a favorite scoring first and also winning happened in only 42.86 percent of games, which makes the fair price about +133, not the short number most bettors picture. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years by pricing combinations like this one before betting them.

"Team to score first and win" is one of the most popular football props on the board. It sounds like a single bet. It is actually two outcomes stapled together: who scores first, and who wins. That makes it a parlay, and it should be checked like one.

This post measures how often each half of that ticket lands, how often both land together, and what the price should be at every spread. It also tests the live version of the bet: what happens after the first points go on the board. If you shop for parlay picks, these are the numbers to have in front of you.

How Was the Study Built?

We used the nflverse play-by-play files for every regular-season game from 2015 through 2025. For each game, we found the first play that put points on the board and recorded which team scored, how many points it was worth, and the quarter.

We joined those games to the nflverse game file, which lists the closing point spread, closing moneylines and final score. The favorite is the team laying points at the close. Four pick'em games were set aside for the favorite cuts.

For the live section, we used the nflverse win probability that is built from the pregame point spread and the game state. We read it on the snap right after the first score. No public archive of real live sportsbook odds exists, so this is the closest available stand-in for what the live market was saying. Each rate was then resampled 2,000 times to estimate a plausible range.

How Often Does the Team That Scores First Win?

About five times in eight.

The plausible range for the overall rate ran from 61.5 to 64.9 percent. Ten games ended in ties, and those count as losses for the first scorer here, the same way they grade on a winning ticket.

Two things stand out. First, the kind of score matters more than the fact of scoring. An opening touchdown was followed by a win 67.6 percent of the time. An opening field goal only 56.2 percent, barely better than a coin.

Second, an underdog that scores first is still an underdog. It won less than half the time, 46.62 percent. One possession does not change which team is better.

How Often Does the Favorite Score First and Win?

This is the bet most people make, and it is where the price gets misread.

Look at the "scored first" column. Even a 7-point favorite scores first only about 57 percent of the time. The opening possession is close to a coin toss until the spread gets very large. That is the leg bettors underrate.

A 4-point favorite feels like a team that should score first and win most weeks. It did both in 42.71 percent of games. The fair price on that is +134. If your sportsbook offers it at +120, you are paying a premium for a ticket that only looks like a strong favorite.

For comparison, the no-vig closing moneyline gave those same 3.5-to-6.5 favorites a 66.5 percent chance to win, and they won 65.89 percent. The straight moneyline was priced almost exactly right. The combination is where the margin can hide, because few bettors know the true number for it.

Does It Help to Pick the Underdog to Score First and Win?

It pays more, and it lands less, roughly in proportion.

A small underdog that scores first won 58.5 percent of the time, which is real. But a double-digit underdog that scores first still lost three games out of four. An early lead does not turn a 10-point underdog into a good team.

The underdog version is only worth a look when the posted price is clearly above the fair number in this table. At +350 on a 4-point dog, it is a bad bet. At +500, it is worth checking.

What Happens When You Stack Two of Them?

Stacking two "score first and win" legs on the same ticket compounds the problem, because each leg is already a two-part bet.

We took every pair of favorites from 3.5 to 9.5 points playing in the same week. That produced 5,109 two-leg tickets. Both favorites scored first and won on 19.53 percent of them. The fair price is +412.

That is a four-outcome parlay with the odds of a long shot, and it is often marketed as a pair of chalky favorites. If a two-leg version is offered well under +400, the ticket is giving away value before the first kickoff. Correlation does not rescue it here: the two games are independent, and the combined rate is almost exactly what you get by multiplying the single-game rates.

Should You Bet the Team That Scored First Live?

The pregame prop asks you to guess the first score. The live market lets you wait for it. So we checked whether the live price after the first score is fair.

Across all 2,895 games, the first scorer won 63.18 percent of the time. The market-informed win probability right after that score said 63.87 percent. The two numbers are within a point of each other. The live market already knows that scoring first matters, and it charges for it.

The more interesting side is the favorite that just fell behind.

Overall, favorites who gave up the first score won exactly as often as the live model expected. Bigger favorites came back slightly more often than the model said, by 2 to 3.5 points, but those samples are small. The plausible range for 7-to-9.5 favorites ran from 60.6 to 73.7 percent, which includes the model's number. Small favorites did a little worse than expected.

We tested a dozen cuts in this post. Treat any gap of a few points as a lead worth watching, not a system.

What Has 2026 Looked Like So Far?

Through Thursday night of Week 7, there have been 94 regular-season games. The first team to score has won 58 of them, 61.7 percent, right in line with the eleven-year rate.

Favorites have scored first in 52.1 percent of games this season and have scored first and won in 38.3 percent, a little below the historical 42.86 percent. Seven weeks is a small sample, and nothing here suggests the market has changed.

How Should You Bet "Score First and Win"?

Price it as a parlay. Use the fair-price tables above as your floor. If the posted price is shorter than the fair number for that spread, the straight moneyline is the better bet.

Prefer touchdown-heavy matchups. Opening touchdowns led to wins 67.6 percent of the time and opening field goals 56.2 percent. The prop itself does not care which kind of score it is, but your read on the matchup should.

Do not stack it. Two legs of this prop multiply into a ticket that lands less than one time in five.

If you want the first score, wait for it. The live price after the first points has been close to fair. Waiting costs you a few cents of price and removes the coin flip on the opening drive.

Why This Matters If You Pay for Picks

Props like this one are where sportsbooks make the easy money, because the bettor rarely knows the true number. A good football handicapper should be able to tell you the fair price on a combination before recommending it.

That is the standard we hold our football betting picks to. If a service sends you "score first and win" plays, ask what price it considers fair. If it cannot answer, it is guessing on the half of the ticket that matters most.

What Are the Limits of This Study?

Fair prices here are based on what happened from 2015 through 2025. They are estimates, not promises, and individual matchups vary.

The live comparison uses a model built from the pregame spread, not actual live sportsbook odds, which are not archived publicly. Real live prices carry a margin that would make every live bet in this post slightly worse.

Sportsbooks may grade this prop differently in overtime or in tied games. Check your book's rules before betting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How often does the team that scores first win in the NFL?

About 63 percent of the time. From 2015 through 2025, the first team to score won 63.18 percent of 2,895 regular-season games. When the first score was a touchdown, that team won 67.57 percent of the time. When it was a field goal, the rate fell to 56.22 percent.

What is the fair price for a favorite to score first and win?

It depends on the spread. From 2015 through 2025, favorites of 0.5 to 3 points scored first and won 36.10 percent of the time, a fair price near +177. Favorites of 3.5 to 6.5 did it 42.71 percent of the time, about +134. Favorites of 7 to 9.5 hit 46.88 percent, about +113, and favorites of 10 or more hit 58.59 percent, about -141.

Is "team to score first and win" a parlay?

Effectively, yes. The bet needs two separate things to happen: the team must score first, and it must win the game. Even favorites score first only about 56 percent of the time, which is why the combination lands far less often than the moneyline alone.

How often does the favorite score first in the NFL?

Less often than most bettors assume. From 2015 through 2025, favorites scored first in 56.45 percent of regular-season games. Favorites of 0.5 to 3 points scored first 52.35 percent of the time, and even 7-to-9.5-point favorites only did it 57.42 percent of the time.

Do underdogs that score first usually win?

No, except for small underdogs. Across all underdogs, those that scored first won 46.62 percent of the time. Underdogs of 0.5 to 3 points that scored first won 58.53 percent, while underdogs of 10 or more that scored first won only 25.00 percent.

Should you bet the team that scored first on the live line?

Only if the price is right. After the first score, the market-informed win probability for the scoring team averaged 63.87 percent, and those teams actually won 63.18 percent of the time. The live number already accounts for the early lead, so there is no automatic edge in backing the first scorer.

How often do two favorites both score first and win?

Rarely. Among 5,109 same-week pairs of 3.5-to-9.5-point favorites from 2015 through 2025, both scored first and won on 19.53 percent of tickets. That is a fair price of about +412, so a two-leg version offered well below that is overpriced.