Kings 1-10: How to Bet Sacramento After the Clifford Trade

The Sacramento Kings are 1-10 after a 107-100 home loss to Orlando on Tuesday night, and they're 0-6 at home. They've been the underdog in all 11 games and are 4-7 against the spread on DraftKings lines, losing by an average of 12.7 points against an average spread of 9.7. On Tuesday they traded Nique Clifford to Oklahoma City for two second-round picks, and they host Portland on Friday and the Thunder, Clifford's new team, on Sunday. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years, and losing teams like this are where the betting market is most often wrong in-game.

A 1-10 team looks like an automatic fade. The numbers show it's not that simple. The Kings have lost by more than the spread on the road, but at home they've covered half the time as big underdogs. How you bet them depends on where they're playing and how big the number is.

What Happened in Sacramento This Week?

Three things happened in about 24 hours.

The Kings lost again. Orlando won 107-100 in Sacramento on Tuesday. Zach LaVine scored 31 points on 10-of-16 shooting and rookie Darius Acuff Jr. added 29, but Domantas Sabonis went scoreless in 24 minutes, according to the ESPN box score. That made it four straight home losses. Sacramento lost by 13 to the Lakers as a 12.5-point dog, covered as a big dog against San Antonio and Miami, then failed to cover as a 5.5-point dog against Orlando.

They traded Nique Clifford. Sacramento sent Clifford to Oklahoma City for two second-round picks, according to Hoops Rumors. Sam Amick of The Athletic reported that coach Doug Christie had been playing veterans LaVine and Malik Monk ahead of Clifford, who logged just 50 minutes in eight games. Management was worried his trade value would keep falling. Christie is in the final guaranteed season of his contract, Amick noted.

The rookie is putting up historic numbers. Acuff, the No. 7 pick out of Arkansas, is averaging 26.2 points and 7.3 assists. His 288 points through 11 games are the most by a rookie since Michael Jordan in 1984, according to ESPN via Hoops Rumors. After Tuesday's loss he said the losing affects him "a lot."

How Bad Have the Kings Been?

Here's every game, with DraftKings lines as shown on ESPN.

The splits tell the real story:

On the road, the Kings have been as bad as their record. They've lost four of five road games by 12 to 31 points. Their one win, at Dallas as a 7.5-point underdog, is the exception.

At home, they've been bad but competitive with the number. They covered as 9.5-point dogs against Portland, 17.5-point dogs against San Antonio and 11.5-point dogs against Miami. When the spread gets into double digits at home, it's been too big. When it's been short, against Memphis (+3.5) and Orlando (+5.5), they haven't covered.

That's a common pattern for bad teams. Books push the spread high enough to attract bettors to the dog, but the market often overshoots on the biggest numbers.

What Does the Clifford Trade Change?

On the court, not much in the short term. Clifford had played only 50 minutes in eight games, so he wasn't part of the rotation. The betting impact is indirect.

The trade suggests Sacramento is still trying to win now with veterans, since Christie's job may depend on it. That means LaVine, Monk and Sabonis keep getting minutes, and Acuff keeps the ball. Keegan Murray came off the bench for a second straight game Tuesday as he works back from left ankle capsulitis, and Christie called that temporary.

For bettors, the question is whether the Kings play harder as Christie tries to save his job, or whether the losing wears on a young roster. Acuff's comments after Tuesday's game suggest the losing is already taking a toll. That's worth watching late in close games, when tired, frustrated teams tend to fall apart.

What's Next on the Kings' Schedule?

Records are from ESPN as of Wednesday. Lines for Friday's game weren't posted at the time of writing.

The Kings play three more home games before going to Los Angeles. Based on their home results so far, the size of the spread is what to watch. If Portland is laying 8 or more on Friday, Sacramento's home pattern says that number may be too big. If Oklahoma City is a double-digit favorite on Sunday, the same applies. Our Blazers road betting guide covers how Portland got off to its fast start.

The Boston game on Saturday, Nov. 21, is the second night of a back-to-back after a road game in Los Angeles. Our guide to betting NBA back-to-backs explains why fatigue tends to show up in the second half.

Should You Fade the Kings?

On the road, the data says yes. At home, be selective.

Sacramento is 1-4 against the spread on the road and has lost those games by 16 points on average. That's a team the market hasn't priced low enough away from home.

At home, the Kings are 3-3 ATS. All three covers came as underdogs of 9.5 points or more. Fading them at home as big dogs has lost money so far. If you're going to bet against Sacramento at home, the short spreads have been the better fade.

Eleven games is a small sample, so treat these splits as a guide, not a rule. Injuries, rest and lineup changes will matter more as the season goes on.

Why This Matters if You Pay for Picks

Losing teams draw a lot of fade money, and the books know it. The spreads on teams like Sacramento are often set to take advantage of bettors who fade automatically. Good NBA handicappers look at where the market has overreacted, not just at the record.

That's where our basketball handicappers focus. The pregame number on a 1-10 team is usually close to fair. The value tends to show up live, when a short-handed or demoralized team starts to break down and the in-game line is slow to react. Our NBA picks and daily sports betting picks are built around those moments, and our basketball handicapping guide explains the approach.

What This Article Doesn't Cover

ATS records are based on DraftKings lines shown on ESPN after each game and may differ slightly from other books' closing numbers. Injury statuses for Murray and others may change. Lines for the Portland and Oklahoma City games weren't posted when this was written. This isn't a recap of Tuesday's game. It's about how to price Sacramento over the next week.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sacramento Kings' record this season?

The Kings are 1-10 after a 107-100 home loss to Orlando on Tuesday. They're 0-6 at home and 1-4 on the road, and their only win was 115-100 at Dallas. Hoops Rumors noted they're in a three-way tie for the NBA's worst record. They've lost by an average of 12.7 points.

How have the Kings done against the spread?

Sacramento is 4-7 against the spread, based on DraftKings lines shown on ESPN. They've been the underdog in all 11 games, with an average spread of 9.7 points. At home they're 3-3 ATS, with all three covers coming as underdogs of 9.5 or more. On the road they're 1-4 ATS and have lost by 16 points per game on average.

Why did the Kings trade Nique Clifford?

Sacramento traded Clifford to Oklahoma City for two second-round picks. Sam Amick of The Athletic reported that coach Doug Christie had been playing veterans ahead of Clifford, who played only 50 minutes in eight games. Management was concerned his trade value would keep dropping if he stayed out of the rotation.

How good has Darius Acuff Jr. been?

Acuff, the No. 7 pick out of Arkansas, is averaging 26.2 points and 7.3 assists. His 288 points through 11 games are the most by a rookie since Michael Jordan in 1984, according to ESPN via Hoops Rumors. He scored 29 points with six assists in Tuesday's loss to Orlando.

When do the Kings play Portland and Oklahoma City?

Sacramento hosts Portland on Friday, Nov. 13, and Oklahoma City on Sunday, Nov. 15. Portland is 7-3 and won in Sacramento 128-120 in October. Oklahoma City is 8-3 and just acquired Clifford from the Kings. Lines for both games weren't posted when this was written.

Should you bet against the Kings at home?

Be selective. The Kings are 0-6 at home but 3-3 against the spread. All three covers came as big underdogs, getting 9.5, 17.5 and 11.5 points. They failed to cover both home games with short spreads, against Memphis (+3.5) and Orlando (+5.5). So far, fading them at home has worked better when the spread is small.

How should you bet a team with a long losing streak?

Start with the size of the spread, not the record. Books know bettors like to fade bad teams, so spreads on losing teams can get too big, especially at home. Look at how the team has done against the number in similar spots, and watch for in-game chances when a struggling team starts to fall apart late.