Lillard and Morant Debut: What Portland's 42.5 Assumes

Damian Lillard and Ja Morant started together in a Portland backcourt for the first time on Wednesday night, and the betting market still prices the Trail Blazers as the same team that went 42-40 last season without either guard. Lillard scored 15 points in 19 minutes of a 123-118 preseason win over a short-handed Golden State roster, the first game since tearing a left Achilles tendon on April 27, 2025. Morant added 8 points and 5 assists. BetMGM's posted win total, dated October 7, is 42.5 with the under at -120. In other words, the market has added two former All-NBA guards and moved the number almost nowhere. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years, and a number that refuses to move on big news is usually telling you something.

That flat number is the story. Below is what it assumes, what Wednesday's game did and did not tell us, and where the information that actually matters will show up first.

What Happened in Lillard and Morant's First Game Together?

Portland hosted Golden State on October 7 in the first preseason game for both teams. Lillard and Morant both started. Lillard made 5 of 11 shots, including 3 of 8 from three, with one rebound, one assist and two steals in 19 minutes. The first shot was a three that fell, which is the clip that will travel. Morant shot 3 of 8 for 8 points with 5 assists.

Deni Avdija led Portland with 23 points. Avdija led the team in scoring last season as well, at 24.2 points per game, which matters for the win-total discussion below.

The opponent needs a footnote. Golden State was playing three games in four days and sat Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski, Gary Payton II, De'Anthony Melton and others. The Warriors started reserves, and Miles Kelly led them with 24 points on six threes. A five-point win over that roster tells you nothing about Portland's regular-season level.

Lillard called the night a return to "where I belong." That is a fair description of the emotion. It is not a description of the basketball, which was 19 minutes against a bench unit.

Why Is Portland's Win Total Only 42.5?

Because the market is not convinced Portland gets both guards, healthy and fitted together, for most of the season.

Read the table from the bottom up. A 42.5 total for a team that won 42 last year means the market expects roughly the same result. The pricing actually leans under. After removing the bookmaker's margin, the over sits near 47.8 percent.

There are three reasons a market would hold the number flat after adding two stars.

Availability. Lillard turned 36 in July and has not played a regular-season game in a year and a half. Morant played 20 games last season around calf, ankle and elbow problems and a one-game team suspension. A win total is a season-long bet on games played, not on talent in a vacuum. Two guards who might combine for 110 games are worth far less than two who combine for 150.

Fit. Portland's own coach has said as much. Micah Nori told The Athletic on October 2 that starting Lillard and Morant together "doesn't make sense" given their defensive limitations, and said one of them could come off the bench, with Jrue Holiday a possible starter. Wednesday's lineup is not the answer to that question. It is the first experiment.

What left. Jerami Grant and Kris Murray went to Memphis in the Morant deal. Last season's 42 wins came from a roster built around Avdija, not around a high-usage point guard. Adding two ball-dominant guards to a team whose best player also handles the ball is not a simple addition.

How Does Portland Compare With the Rest of the West?

The same BetMGM board, dated October 7, puts Portland in the crowded middle of the conference.

Two notes. Memphis, the team that traded Morant, sits at 29.5 with the over favored. The market is not treating the Grizzlies as gutted. And the Clippers are now 28.5, down from the 30.5 that was posted before Brandon Ingram and Max Strus were ruled out, a move we flagged in our Clippers injury breakdown on October 6.

When we covered the Morant trade the day it happened, our Morant trade analysis said the futures market would adjust first and the early-season games would carry the real information. The futures market has now spoken, and its answer was close to "no change." That leaves the early games.

What Will Actually Tell Us Something?

Not preseason box scores. Lillard's 19 minutes were a health milestone, not a measurement. The same was true of Tyrese Haliburton's return on the same night, which we covered in what Indiana's 44.5 assumes.

Here is what does carry information, roughly in the order it will arrive:

Every one of those shows up first in nightly lines and in-game prices, not on the win-total board. That is where the market will be guessing hardest, and where an informed read of the rotation is worth the most.

So Is the Over or the Under the Bet?

We are not taking a side on a season-long number this early. That is not caution for its own sake. The two inputs that decide this total, games played by Lillard and Morant and how the coach staggers them, are unknown to everyone, including the book. A futures bet locks up money for six months on that guess at -120 or +100.

What we would watch instead is the first stretch of the regular season. If Portland opens with one guard on the bench and the team looks better for it, the nightly lines will lag. If the two-guard lineups bleed points, live totals will be slow to catch up in the minutes those lineups are on the floor. That is the kind of read that basketball handicappers are paid to make, and it is why we spend more time on game-by-game NBA picks than on futures in October.

What Does This Mean If You Bet the NBA?

Three practical points.

First, be careful with preseason reactions. A good Lillard night against a Warriors team resting its stars is exactly the kind of result that pulls money onto an over too early.

Second, treat availability as the main variable for any team built around returning or injury-prone stars. Portland, Indiana and the Clippers are all in that position this October, and all three totals are priced around health more than talent.

Third, if you buy picks, ask how a service handles the first month of an NBA season, when rotations are unsettled and the numbers are softest in-game. Our NBA handicappers page explains how we approach that stretch, and our expert sports picks page covers what arrives each day.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did Damian Lillard play in the return from the Achilles injury?

Lillard scored 15 points in 19 minutes on October 7, 2026, shooting 5 of 11 from the field and 3 of 8 from three with two steals, as Portland beat Golden State 123-118 in a preseason game. It was the first game since the torn left Achilles on April 27, 2025.

Did Lillard and Morant start together for the Trail Blazers?

Yes. Lillard and Ja Morant started together in Portland's first preseason game on October 7. Coach Micah Nori said on October 2 that starting both "doesn't make sense" defensively and that one could come off the bench, so the regular-season lineup is still undecided.

What is the Trail Blazers' 2026-27 win total?

BetMGM lists Portland at 42.5 wins as of October 7, 2026, with the over at +100 and the under at -120. Portland went 42-40 in 2025-26 without Lillard or Morant, so the market is projecting about the same record despite adding both guards.

Why didn't Portland's win total go up after adding Lillard and Morant?

The market is pricing availability and fit. Lillard is 36 and returning from an Achilles tear, Morant played 20 games last season, and the team gave up Jerami Grant and Kris Murray in the Morant trade. The coach has also questioned whether the two guards can start together defensively.

Did the Warriors play their starters against Portland?

No. Golden State was playing three games in four days and rested Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski and several others. The Warriors started reserves, which is why the 123-118 result says little about Portland's regular-season strength.

Should you bet the Trail Blazers over or under 42.5 wins?

We are not taking a side. The total depends mainly on how many games Lillard and Morant play and how the coach uses them together, which nobody knows yet. Those answers will appear first in nightly lines and in-game prices during the first weeks of the season.

What happened to the Memphis Grizzlies' win total after the Morant trade?

BetMGM lists Memphis at 29.5 wins as of October 7, 2026, with the over at -120 and the under at +100. The over being favored suggests the market does not view Memphis as badly weakened by trading Morant for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray.