NFL Safety Props, Tested: The Real Odds

An NFL safety happens in about 5.6 percent of regular-season games. We checked every regular-season game from 2016 through 2025, and 148 of 2,639 had at least one safety, a rate of 5.61 percent. That puts the fair price on "Yes" at about +1683. The Super Bowl prices we found ran from +850 to +1000, which imply a 9 to 10.5 percent chance, nearly double the real rate. The safety also has almost no link to the game total or the spread, so adding it to a same-game parlay gives you a longer payout without any real correlation edge. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years, and that starts with checking what a price implies before paying it.

The safety prop is one of the few NFL bets that almost everyone has an opinion on and almost no one has priced. It's a coin you hope lands on its edge. Books know that. Here is what the data says about how often it happens, what drives it, and whether it belongs in a parlay.

How Often Does a Safety Happen in an NFL Game?

We used the nflverse play-by-play data for every regular-season game from 2016 through 2025, plus the 2026 season through Thursday night of Week 9. A game counts as "Yes" if either team scored at least one safety.

Only three games in ten seasons had two safeties. So the bet is almost always a simple question: does one happen or not?

The rate moves a lot from year to year, from 2.94 percent in 2021 to 9.38 percent in 2020. That's what you'd expect from an event this rare. With about 14 safety games a season, a handful either way swings the rate by two points.

The last five full seasons ran lower than the five before them. From 2021 through 2025, 64 of 1,359 games had a safety, or 4.71 percent. At that rate, the fair Yes price is about +2023, not +1683.

This season has been even quieter. Two safeties in 122 games is low, but not shocking. At the 2021-25 rate, you'd expect about six by now. Seeing two or fewer would happen roughly 7 percent of the time by chance alone. We wouldn't build a forecast on half a season, but it doesn't argue for a higher price on Yes.

What Price Do Sportsbooks Put on a Safety?

We didn't find a reliable source for regular-season safety prices, which vary by book and by game. The Super Bowl gives a public reference point. DraftKings listed Yes at +900 for Super Bowl 54, FanDuel had +1000 for Super Bowl 55, and Covers reported BetMGM at +850 for Super Bowl 60, with No at -2000.

Here's what those prices require:

The expected returns assume the 2016-25 rate holds. At the 2021-25 rate of 4.71 percent, every row gets worse. For comparison, a standard -110 spread bet costs you about $4.50 per $100 if you have no edge at all. A safety at +1000 costs about eight times that.

The No side is a different story. At -2000, No needs to hit 95.24 percent of the time, and it actually hits about 94.4 percent. That's a small loss, around 0.9 percent, but it's close to fair. The trouble is that No pays so little that it barely moves a parlay.

Do Safeties Happen More in Low-Scoring Games?

A little, but not enough to matter. The common idea is that low totals mean strong defenses and field-position battles, which should create more safeties. Here is the rate by closing total:

There's a gentle slope, about one point from the lowest totals to the highest. Even the best band, 6.09 percent, puts fair Yes near +1540. That's still far longer than any price we found.

The spread shows nothing at all. Games with a closing spread of 2.5 or less had a safety 6.08 percent of the time. Games with a spread of 10 or more had one 5.49 percent of the time. The bands in between were 5.32 and 5.88 percent. You can't pick your safety games by matchup type.

Is a Safety Correlated With the Over or Under?

No. This is the key question for anyone building a same-game parlay. Correlation is the only reason to put two legs from the same game together. If one leg makes the other more likely, a fairly priced same-game parlay can be worth more than the two legs separately.

The safety doesn't have that link:

Games with a safety went over the total 50.34 percent of the time. Games without one went over 48.89 percent of the time. Games with a safety averaged 45.4 total points. Games without one averaged 45.6. Two points for a safety barely move a final score, and the kind of game that produces a safety isn't a different kind of game.

So a safety leg in a same-game parlay is just a long shot multiplied onto your other leg. Take a two-leg parlay with Yes at +1000 and a -110 spread. The combined payout is about +2000. If the side is a true coin flip, the chance both hit is 5.61 percent times 50 percent, or about 2.8 percent. The expected loss is about 41 percent of your stake. You've turned a bet that costs 4.5 percent into one that costs 41 percent.

We found the same pattern when we tested defensive and special teams touchdown props and NFL overtime props. Rare-event props are priced for excitement, and parlaying them only stacks the cost.

When Do Safeties Happen?

The fourth quarter produces the most. Of the 151 safeties in our 2016-25 sample, 57 came in the fourth quarter, about 38 percent. The first quarter had 30, the second 37 and the third 27.

Late safeties come from late-game situations: teams trailing and passing from deep in their own end, and teams taking an intentional safety to protect a lead and kick from their own 20.

How they happen matters too:

• Pass plays: 71. Mostly sacks in the end zone, plus intentional grounding.
• Running plays: 54. Runs stopped in the end zone, including kneel-downs and designed safeties.
• Penalties: 13. Offensive holding in the end zone.
• Punts: 12. Blocked punts and snaps out of the end zone.
• Kickoffs: 1.

Is a Live Safety Bet Better?

Not as a blanket bet. If a game reaches the fourth quarter with no safety, the chance of one in the rest of the game was 2.16 percent in our sample, 55 of 2,546 games. Fair odds for that are about +4530. Books may post a long price in-game, but a bigger number isn't the same as better value.

The live edge isn't in betting the prop because it's late. It's in betting it when the game state changes the odds, like an offense starting inside its own 5 in the fourth quarter, facing a pass rush that's had its way. Those plays are rare, and you have to be watching to catch them.

How Does This Fit a Real Betting Plan?

Treat the safety prop as entertainment, not part of your bankroll plan. The data gives you three rules:

1. Know the fair price. About +1683 on the 2016-25 rate, and closer to +2000 on the last five seasons. Anything shorter loses money over time. 2. Don't parlay it for correlation. The safety has no link to the over, the under or the spread. 3. If you bet it, bet it live and selectively. Game state is the only information that changes the real probability.

Most bettors lose on props like this because the payout looks big and the cost isn't visible. A good football handicappers service should explain why a bet is worth the price, not just what to bet. Our football betting picks page covers the sides and totals we actually play, and our NFL spread picks page shows our against-the-spread approach. If you're comparing services, our guide to daily sports betting picks explains what to expect, and our NFL picks page has the weekly card.

For basketball bettors, our basketball handicappers page applies the same idea: price what actually happens on the floor, not what makes a good story.

What This Study Doesn't Cover

This study counts any game with at least one safety. It doesn't test team-specific safety props, which some books offer, and it doesn't use historical regular-season prices, because we couldn't find a reliable source. The 2026 numbers run through the Thursday night game of Week 9. Rates can change if rules or play-calling change, and the recent drop is worth watching. But no version of the data supports a shorter price than about +1500.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How often is there a safety in an NFL game?

In about 5.6 percent of regular-season games. From 2016 through 2025, 148 of 2,639 games had at least one safety. The last five full seasons ran lower, at 4.71 percent, and the 2026 season had only two safeties in its first 122 games.

What are fair odds for a safety in an NFL game?

About +1683 on the 2016-25 rate of 5.61 percent, and about +2023 on the 2021-25 rate of 4.71 percent. Super Bowl prices we found ranged from +850 to +1000, which imply a 9 to 10.5 percent chance.

Is the safety prop a good bet?

Not at typical prices. At +1000, Yes needs to hit 9.09 percent of the time to break even, and it has hit 5.61 percent of the time. That's an expected loss of about $38 per $100 bet, compared with about $4.50 on a standard -110 spread bet.

Do low-scoring games have more safeties?

Slightly. Games with a closing total of 40.5 or lower had a safety 6.09 percent of the time, compared with 5.12 percent for totals of 50 or higher. Even the best band puts fair Yes around +1540, which is still longer than the prices books usually post.

Should I add a safety to a same-game parlay?

Not for correlation. Games with a safety went over the total 50.34 percent of the time, about the same as games without one. Safety-and-over hit 2.80 percent of the time, close to the 2.75 percent you'd expect if the two were independent. Adding the leg only multiplies the cost.

What quarter has the most safeties?

The fourth. Of 151 safeties from 2016 through 2025, 57 came in the fourth quarter, about 38 percent. Late safeties come from trailing teams passing from deep in their own end and from teams taking intentional safeties to protect a lead.

Is a live safety bet better than a pregame one?

Only when the game state changes the odds. If a game reaches the fourth quarter without a safety, the chance of one the rest of the way was 2.16 percent, which is fair odds near +4530. The edge comes from specific spots, like an offense backed up inside its own 5, not from betting late by default.