Defensive TD Parlay Props, Tested

A defensive or special teams touchdown was scored in 25.12 percent of NFL regular-season games from 2016 through 2025, which works out to a fair price of about +298 on the "Yes." That rate has been sliding: 28.13 percent from 2016 through 2019, 23.22 percent from 2020 through 2025, and only 12.40 percent through Week 8 of 2026. When one did happen, the game went over the closing total 61.19 percent of the time, which is the correlation same-game parlay builders lean on. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years by testing prop markets like this before putting money on them.

"Will there be a defensive or special teams touchdown?" is one of the most common add-on legs in an NFL same-game parlay. It pays a plus price, it feels like a coin you can flip on any game, and it rides along with an over or an underdog. We pulled every regular-season game since 2016 to see how often it actually hits, what it is really worth, and which legs it pairs with.

How Did We Measure Non-Offensive Touchdowns?

We used the nflverse play-by-play files for every regular-season game from 2016 through Week 8 of 2026, 2,760 games in all. A play counted as a defensive or special teams touchdown if the team that scored was not the team on offense, or if it was a kickoff return touchdown. That captures interception returns, fumble returns, punt returns, kickoff returns, and blocked-kick returns. Safeties are not touchdowns and were not counted, though we report them separately below because some books bundle them into a "defensive score" market.

For the historical rate we used the ten complete seasons, 2016 through 2025, which is 2,639 games. For the parlay tables we added the 2026 games played so far and dropped any game that landed exactly on its closing total, leaving 2,739.

How Often Is There a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown?

About one game in four, historically, but the number depends on which years you count.

The single-season rates bounce around. The high was 30.86 percent in 2017 and the low in a full season was 20.22 percent in 2024. But the direction since 2020 is down. Interceptions drive this market, and league-wide interception rates have kept drifting lower as offenses lean on shorter, safer throws. Through eight weeks of 2026, the rate is less than half the 2016-19 level. Eight weeks is a small sample, so we wouldn't price the rest of the season at 12 percent, but it is a warning against using old numbers.

Here's why that matters for your ticket. If a book hangs the "Yes" at +250, it is implying 28.57 percent. That's the rate from the 2016-19 era. On recent seasons, the same bet is worth something closer to +330, so the price would be short by a meaningful margin.

What Kinds of Touchdowns Make Up the Prop?

Turnovers do most of the work. Of the 795 non-offensive touchdowns in the data:

Nearly three of every four came off a turnover. That's the key to handicapping the prop: you are mostly betting on a quarterback throwing an interception that gets returned, or a strip-sack that gets scooped. Return touchdowns, which many bettors picture first, are about a quarter of the market.

Games rarely produce more than one. 571 games had exactly one non-offensive touchdown, 99 had two, seven had three, and one, the 52-38 Lions-Saints game in October 2017, had five.

Does a Defensive Touchdown Push the Game Over?

Yes, and by a lot. This is the correlation most same-game parlay builders are leaning on.

The closing totals were almost identical, but the games with a defensive or return touchdown scored about 5.6 more points. That makes sense: a pick-six is seven points the offenses didn't have to earn, and it usually hands the ball right back to the team that just threw it, so the other side gets another possession too.

In parlay terms, "Yes" and "Over" hit together in 15.08 percent of games. If the two legs were unrelated, the way a standard parlay prices them, they'd hit together 12.10 percent of the time. That's a real lift, about 25 percent more often than independent pricing assumes. Most sportsbooks know it and shade the same-game price, so the plus number on the combined ticket is usually shorter than multiplying the two legs. It's the same issue we found with race to 20 points parlays: two legs that move together get priced closer to one.

Does the Total or the Spread Change the Rate?

The total barely matters. The spread does, at the extremes.

If anything, the highest-total games were the least likely to have one. High totals tend to feature good quarterbacks who don't throw many interceptions. Low totals feature weaker offenses, which give the defense more chances.

Double-digit spreads stand out at 30.06 percent. A big underdog usually means a bad offense, often with a backup quarterback, and a team that falls behind and has to throw. That's how interceptions get returned. If you want the "Yes," big mismatches are where it has hit most often.

Is "Team Defense TD Plus Moneyline" a Good Parlay?

This is where the prop gets interesting. A team-specific defensive or special teams touchdown changes the game more than almost any other single play.

An underdog that scored a defensive or return touchdown won 58.90 percent of the time, nearly double the rate of underdogs that didn't. The joint ticket, "underdog defense or special teams TD plus underdog moneyline," hit 6.68 percent of the time. If the legs were unrelated it would hit 3.80 percent. That gap is large, and it's why books either block the combination or price it far shorter than two separate legs.

The effect held across spreads:

When only one team scored a non-offensive touchdown, which happened in 630 games, that team won 76.79 percent of the time and covered the spread 75.93 percent of the time. A single pick-six or punt return is close to a 14-point swing in field position and points, and the spread doesn't absorb that.

The catch is the price. A team-specific "Yes" has a fair price around +564 for a favorite and +783 for an underdog based on these rates. That's a long shot on its own, and a same-game parlay builder will shade the combination down. Our underdog moneyline parlay study shows how expensive dog-heavy tickets already are before you add a low-probability leg.

What About Safeties?

At least one safety was scored in 5.43 percent of games. If your book's market is "defensive score" rather than "defensive or special teams touchdown," read the rules, because safeties might count. A safety is worth only two points, and the team that gave it up then kicks the ball away, so it doesn't swing the over the way a touchdown does.

How Should You Use the Prop in a Parlay?

Price it on recent seasons, not career numbers. The 2016-2025 average is 25.12 percent, but the last six seasons ran 23.22 percent, and 2026 has been far lower. Anything shorter than about +300 on the game-level "Yes" is asking you to pay for the old rate.

Look for mismatches. Double-digit spreads produced the prop 30.06 percent of the time. A weak offense forced to throw from behind is the most common setup.

Don't expect the over to stay cheap. The "Yes plus over" pairing is real correlation, and books price it in. If the same-game price is close to the two legs multiplied together, that's the rare spot where the combination is underpriced.

Treat team-specific TDs as long shots. They swing games, but at +564 to +783 fair, they should be small stakes. Our NFL same-game parlay guide and anytime touchdown parlay strategy cover how to size long-shot legs.

What Does This Mean When You Buy Football Picks?

It means the props that pay the biggest numbers are rarely the ones a service should lean on. A parlay leg at +250 that hits 23 percent of the time loses money over a season, no matter how good it looks on a winning screenshot.

Our football betting picks and NFL picks against the spread are built on markets we've tested against real outcomes, and every result is posted on our results page. If you're comparing expert sports picks from different services, ask whether their parlay legs are priced on recent data. Our football handicappers page explains how we build the weekly card, and our basketball handicappers page covers how we apply the same testing to NBA props.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How often is there a defensive or special teams touchdown in an NFL game?

From 2016 through 2025, at least one defensive or special teams touchdown was scored in 25.12 percent of regular-season games, 663 of 2,639. The rate was 28.13 percent from 2016 through 2019 and 23.22 percent from 2020 through 2025. Through Week 8 of 2026 it was 12.40 percent.

What is a fair price for the defensive or special teams touchdown prop?

On the 2016-2025 rate of 25.12 percent, the fair price on "Yes" is about +298. On the 2020-2025 rate of 23.22 percent, it's about +331. A price of +250 implies 28.57 percent, which matches the 2016-19 era rather than recent seasons.

Does a defensive touchdown make the over more likely?

Yes. Games with a defensive or special teams touchdown went over the closing total 61.19 percent of the time, compared with 45.16 percent for games without one. They scored about 5.6 more points on average, even though their closing totals were nearly the same.

What type of touchdown is most common in this prop?

Interception returns, which made up 47.17 percent of the 795 non-offensive touchdowns in the data. Fumble returns were 27.42 percent, punt returns 14.84 percent, kickoff returns 9.06 percent, and blocked kicks and other plays 1.51 percent.

Is a defensive touchdown more likely in a big mismatch?

It has been. Games with a closing spread of 10 or more points had a defensive or special teams touchdown 30.06 percent of the time, compared with 22.97 percent for games with a spread of 3 to 6.5. High-total games were slightly less likely to have one, at 21.34 percent for totals of 50 or more.

Should I parlay an underdog's defensive touchdown with its moneyline?

The legs are strongly related. Underdogs that scored a defensive or special teams touchdown won 58.90 percent of the time, compared with 30.22 percent without one, and the pair hit together 6.68 percent of the time versus 3.80 percent if unrelated. Books know this and usually block or reprice the combination.

Do safeties count in the defensive touchdown prop?

Not in a touchdown market, because a safety is not a touchdown. Some books offer a separate "defensive score" market that may include safeties, so check the rules. At least one safety was scored in 5.43 percent of games in the data.