NFL Thanksgiving Games Against the Spread: 27 Years of Results

NFL Thanksgiving games against the spread have not been kind to the home teams. From 1999 through 2025, home teams on Thanksgiving went 32-40-1 against the spread (44.44 percent), and Detroit went 10-16-1 ATS at home. Favorites did better, covering 43-29-1 (59.72 percent), but that edge shrank from 65.71 percent in 1999-2012 to 54.05 percent from 2013 on. None of these trends clears the bar for statistical significance on 73 games. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years, and holiday trends are a good test of whether a pick service is reading data or selling a story.

Every November, the same headlines come back. "The Lions always lose on Thanksgiving." "Fade the Cowboys at home." "Favorites crush on Turkey Day." Some of those lines are close to the truth. Some are built on a handful of games from fifteen years ago. A bettor who can't tell the difference pays for it every year.

We built this study from the nflverse schedule file, which has closing spreads, totals and final scores for every NFL game since 1999. We pulled every game played on the fourth Thursday of November from 1999 through 2025. That's 73 games: two a year through 2005, three a year once the night game was added in 2006, and two in 2020, when the Ravens-Steelers game was moved off the holiday.

How Have Home Teams Done Against the Spread on Thanksgiving?

Not well.

Thanksgiving home teams covered about four points less often than NFL home teams in general. Detroit is the main reason. The Lions won only 8 of 27 Thanksgiving home games in this span, and they were favored in just 9 of them.

Both teams play on four days of rest, so the short week doesn't favor either side. Every Thanksgiving game in the data shows the same rest for both teams.

Is the Lions Thanksgiving Trend Still Real?

This is the trend people repeat most often, and the split by era changes the story.

Most of the damage came from 1999 through 2012, when the Lions were one of the worst teams in the league. Since 2013, Detroit has been exactly .500 against the spread on Thanksgiving. A bettor fading the Lions today because of their 2000s record is betting on a team that no longer exists.

Here are the last five years for both home teams:

Detroit has gone 1-3-1 ATS in its last five Thanksgiving games, and it was favored in three of them. That's a better team failing to cover big numbers, not a bad team losing. It's a different situation from the 2000s, and it calls for a different read.

Is Fading the Cowboys on Thanksgiving a Good Bet?

Dallas looks like the opposite of Detroit.

The Cowboys covered almost two out of three early on, then fell to 4-9 ATS from 2013 through 2025, even while winning more than half their games. They were favored in 20 of their 27 Thanksgiving home games. The national audience inflates the Cowboys' price, and on Thanksgiving it's the biggest audience of the regular season.

But Dallas has covered three Thanksgivings in a row. A 4-9 stretch followed by three straight covers is what a 13-game sample looks like. It isn't a system.

Do Favorites Cover on Thanksgiving?

Better than usual, at least on paper.

Favorites won straight up 57 times in 73 games (78.08 percent). That's the most interesting number in the study, and it's also the one that most needs a warning label.

A 43-29 record over 72 decisions is about 1.6 standard deviations above a coin flip. That's not enough to rule out luck. More important, the edge has been shrinking. Favorites covered 65.71 percent in the first fourteen years and 54.05 percent in the last thirteen. That decline is what you'd expect if the market noticed the pattern and adjusted. A 54 percent rate is barely above the 52.4 percent you need to break even at -110.

What About Thanksgiving Totals?

Overall, the over went 37-36 (50.68 percent), which is a coin flip. The splits by game are more interesting, but the samples are tiny.

The night game going under 13 of 19 times fits other primetime research. We found the same tilt in a much larger sample in our primetime unders study. The Dallas over at 17-10 is a 27-game sample. Don't build a bankroll plan on it.

What Is on the 2026 Thanksgiving Schedule?

The 2026 schedule lists three games on Thursday, November 26: Bears at Lions in the early slot, Eagles at Cowboys in the late afternoon, and Chiefs at Bills at night. Lines weren't posted in the data at the time of writing, so check current prices before you bet any of these trends.

This year, Detroit and Dallas are hosting division rivals, and the night game is in Buffalo. Last year, the night game was in Baltimore. A night host that changes every year is one more reason the "night-game under" sample is noisy.

How Should You Use Thanksgiving Trends?

Three rules come straight from the numbers.

1. Split every trend by era. The Lions and Cowboys trends both flipped around 2013. A 27-year record that hides a reversal is worse than no record at all.

2. Treat 73 games as a hint, not a system. None of the splits in this study is statistically strong. Use them as a tiebreaker after you've priced the game on its own merits.

3. Price the game, not the holiday. Both teams have the same rest. The short week is equal. What's different on Thanksgiving is the betting audience, and that affects the price more than the field.

We've tested other popular NFL trends with larger samples, including winning and losing streaks against the spread and point differential versus record. Most of them look weaker once you split them by era. For the full weekly card, see our NFL picks against the spread and NFL picks pages. And for the short-week dynamics that apply to every Thursday game, see our Thursday Night Football picks guide.

How Can You Tell if a Pick Service Is Selling a Trend?

Thanksgiving is a good test for any sports handicapping service you're thinking about paying.

A service that sends "Lions are 8-19 at home on Thanksgiving, fade them" is selling a story. It's using a 27-year record without telling you that half of it came from a different era, a different coach and a different roster. A service that understands the data will tell you the sample size, the split, and why it still does or doesn't like the bet.

Ask three questions before you trust a holiday pick:

1. How many games is the trend based on? Fewer than 100 should be treated as a tiebreaker at most. 2. Does it hold in the last ten years? If not, the market has probably adjusted. 3. Does the service show its full record? A service that hides its losing picks will always look good in November.

At The Best Bet on Sports, the real edge isn't a holiday trend. It's live betting. We've been limited on all six major U.S. sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics and ESPN BET) for winning too much on in-game bets. If you're looking for football handicappers who bet the game as it happens, every bet we make in our current challenge is posted on our results page.

What This Study Doesn't Cover

This study covers Thanksgiving Day regular-season games from 1999 through 2025, using closing spreads and totals from the nflverse schedule file. It doesn't include opening lines, line movement, player props, or the Black Friday game that has been added in recent years. Records are from the home team's side unless noted. Small samples like these can change a lot with one or two results, so treat every number here as a starting point, not a conclusion.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How do home teams do against the spread on Thanksgiving?

Poorly. From 1999 through 2025, Thanksgiving home teams went 32-40-1 against the spread, a 44.44 percent cover rate. That's about four points below the 48.85 percent rate for all NFL regular-season home teams over the same years. Detroit's 10-16-1 home record accounts for most of the gap.

What is the Lions' record against the spread on Thanksgiving?

Detroit went 10-16-1 ATS at home on Thanksgiving from 1999 through 2025, a 38.46 percent cover rate, and 8-19 straight up. But almost all of that came early. The Lions were 4-10 ATS from 1999 through 2012 and an even 6-6-1 from 2013 through 2025.

Should you fade the Cowboys on Thanksgiving?

Not automatically. Dallas went 13-14 ATS at home on Thanksgiving from 1999 through 2025. The Cowboys were 9-5 ATS through 2012, then 4-9 from 2013 through 2025, but they've covered three Thanksgivings in a row since. The samples are too small to support a blanket fade.

Do favorites cover on Thanksgiving?

They have so far, but the edge is shrinking. Favorites went 43-29-1 ATS on Thanksgiving from 1999 through 2025, a 59.72 percent cover rate. That fell from 65.71 percent in 1999-2012 to 54.05 percent in 2013-2025, which is barely above the break-even rate at standard -110 pricing.

Do Thanksgiving games go over or under the total?

Overall it's a coin flip: the over went 37-36 from 1999 through 2025. The night game went under 13 of 19 times since it was added in 2006, and the Dallas game went over 17 of 27 times. Both samples are small, so treat them as hints rather than systems.

Do teams have a rest disadvantage on Thanksgiving?

No. Both teams in every Thanksgiving game in this study played on four days of rest. The short week affects both sides equally, so it isn't an edge for either team. The bigger difference on Thanksgiving is the size of the casual betting audience, which can move prices.

Who plays on Thanksgiving in 2026?

The 2026 NFL schedule lists Bears at Lions in the early game, Eagles at Cowboys in the late afternoon game, and Chiefs at Bills in the night game on Thursday, November 26. Check current lines before betting, because spreads for these games can move a lot in the final days before kickoff.