NFL Highest-Scoring Quarter Prop: How Often Each Quarter Wins

In the NFL highest-scoring quarter prop, the second quarter wins most often. Across 2,639 regular-season games from 2016 through 2025, the second quarter had the most points 36.11 percent of the time, a fair price of about +177. The fourth quarter won 30.73 percent of the time (+225), the third 12.43 percent (+705), the first 9.66 percent (+935), and two or more quarters tied for the top 11.06 percent (+804). When the fourth quarter wins, the game goes over 56.33 percent of the time. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years, and quarter props are one of the places where the in-game price and the real odds most often drift apart.

Most bettors pick the fourth quarter. It feels like the quarter where everything happens: two-minute drills, onside kicks, garbage-time touchdowns. The data says the fourth is a strong second choice, but the second quarter wins more often, and the reason is mechanical, not emotional.

We built this study from nflverse play-by-play data. For every regular-season game from 2016 through 2025, we took the score at the end of each quarter and worked out how many points were scored in each one. The quarter totals matched the final score in 99.96 percent of non-overtime games. Overtime points are left out, because most books grade the fourth quarter as regulation only. Check your book's rules before you bet, since a few include overtime in the fourth.

Which Quarter Is Most Often the Highest-Scoring?

Here is the full answer from ten seasons of games:

The second and fourth quarters together win two out of every three games. That isn't luck. Those are the two quarters that end with a two-minute warning, when teams hurry, stop the clock and throw more. The second quarter gets an extra boost because the end-of-half drive often ends in a field goal attempt that teams wouldn't try on a fourth down in the middle of the field.

The first and third quarters start with a kickoff and a scripted opening drive. Teams settle in and punt more. They combine for about one game in five.

The tie result is bigger than most people expect. In more than one game out of nine, two quarters share the top spot, often at 7, 10 or 14 points. If your book grades a tie as a loss for every quarter, that 11 percent is part of the house's edge on every side of this market.

Has the Pattern Changed in Recent Seasons?

It has shifted, but not much.

From 2020 on, the first and third quarters lost ground and the second and fourth gained. That fits how teams play now: slower starts, more passing in the hurry-up windows.

This season looks different so far. Through Week 9, the second and fourth quarters are tied at 40 games each, and ties for the top have jumped to 15.44 percent. That's 136 games, which is a small sample. One season of noise shouldn't change your price much. In 2025, the fourth quarter edged out the second (33.1 percent to 30.5 percent). It was the only season in our data where that happened.

Does the Game Total Change Which Quarter Wins?

Barely. That's the surprise in this study.

A low-total grinder and a high-total shootout give the second quarter almost the same chance. The fourth quarter gains a couple of points in high-total games, and that's it. If your book prices the highest-scoring quarter differently for a 38-point game and a 51-point game, the difference is probably larger than the data supports.

Does the Point Spread Matter?

It matters more than the total, and close games are where the fourth quarter wins.

In games decided by a touchdown or less, the fourth quarter is the favorite. In blowouts, the second quarter takes over, because the winning team often builds its lead before halftime and runs the clock in the fourth.

The pregame spread doesn't predict this as cleanly as the final margin. Pick'em games (spread 0 to 2.5) favored the second quarter 38.42 percent to 33.50 percent. Games with spreads of 3 to 6.5 were the closest split at 33.59 percent to 30.54 percent. The final margin is the real driver, and you only learn it as the game unfolds. That's why this prop is better live than before kickoff.

How Does the Highest-Scoring Quarter Fit in a Parlay?

This is where it gets useful for same-game parlays.

The fourth quarter and the over go together. Games where the fourth quarter wins went over 56.33 percent of the time, against a 48.97 percent baseline. Pairing "4th quarter highest" with the over hit 17.20 percent of the time, compared with 15.05 percent if the two were independent. That's a positive correlation, so a book that prices the legs separately is paying you a little too much on that pair.

The second quarter is the opposite. Pairing "2nd quarter highest" with the over hit 17.05 percent, slightly below the 17.68 percent you'd expect if the legs were independent. The second quarter is the favorite on its own, but it's a mild drag in a same-game parlay with the over.

The first quarter is a strong under signal. When the first quarter wins, the game went over only 35.69 percent of the time. Fast starts that fade are low-scoring games.

What About Overtime Games?

Overtime happened in 5.46 percent of these games. In those games, the fourth quarter (regulation only) was the highest-scoring quarter 40.3 percent of the time, which makes sense: a game that goes to overtime usually has a late tying score. The second quarter won 26.4 percent and ties 17.4 percent.

If your book includes overtime in the fourth quarter, the fourth gets a small extra push in those games. If it doesn't, nothing changes. The rule matters for grading. It doesn't change the price much. We covered how overtime is graded in other markets in do parlay legs include overtime.

How Should You Bet This Prop?

Three rules come straight from the numbers.

1. Compare the second-quarter price to +177. That's the fair price based on ten seasons. If your book offers the second quarter at a shorter price, the book is taking a big cut. If it offers +200 or better, the second quarter is worth a look as a straight bet.

2. Use the fourth quarter in correlated parlays, not alone. At +225 fair, the fourth quarter isn't special on its own. Its value is that it goes with the over and with close games. A same-game parlay with a short spread, the over and "4th quarter highest" is built on legs that tend to win together.

3. Bet it live after a slow first half. The halftime split (47.23 percent for the fourth after a quiet half, 15.01 percent after a shootout) is the biggest move in this study. That's the information pregame bettors don't have.

These props sit next to other quarter and half markets we've tested: the highest-scoring half, the first-quarter tie rate, and the team to score in every quarter. If you want the full side-and-total card each week, our football betting picks and NFL picks against the spread pages are the place to start.

Why Does This Matter if You Pay for Picks?

Quarter props are where the pregame card and the live game split apart. A service that only sends picks before kickoff can't use the halftime information in this study. The edge here comes from watching the first half and acting before the live price catches up.

That's how The Best Bet on Sports works. We bet in-game, and we've been limited on all six major U.S. sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics and ESPN BET) for winning too much at it. If you're comparing expert sports picks services, ask whether they bet live or just send a pregame list. And if you follow other sports too, the same in-game approach drives our work as basketball handicappers.

What This Study Doesn't Cover

This study uses regular-season games from 2016 through 2025, plus 2026 through Week 9. It doesn't include playoff games, and it doesn't compare against actual book prices, which vary a lot by sportsbook and by game. The fair odds shown are break-even prices from the historical frequencies, before any vig. The halftime splits are based on total first-half points, not on which team was winning. Book rules for ties and overtime differ, so read the rules before you bet.

Get Tonight's Live Picks

Want live in-game NFL calls, including halftime spots when the second-half price hasn't caught up with a slow first half, sent to your phone during the game?

The Best Bet on Sports is the only live betting handicapping service limited on all six major U.S. sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics, ESPN BET) for winning too much during in-game action. Verified profit: $367,520+. Live calls go out through Email and Discord during games, and every bet in the $10,000 to $100,000 challenge is posted as it happens.

→ Join The Best Bet on Sports community — newsletter, live stream and Discord → Try a free live pick first — reserve your spot for tonight's pick

Frequently Asked Questions

Which quarter is most often the highest-scoring in the NFL?

The second quarter. From 2016 through 2025, the second quarter was the highest-scoring quarter in 36.11 percent of regular-season games, ahead of the fourth quarter at 30.73 percent. The third quarter won 12.43 percent, the first 9.66 percent, and two or more quarters tied for the top in 11.06 percent of games.

What is a fair price for the second quarter to be the highest-scoring?

About +177, based on the 36.11 percent historical rate. That's a break-even price with no vig. If your sportsbook offers the second quarter at a shorter price, the book's margin is large. At +200 or better, it's priced above its historical rate.

Why does the second quarter score the most points?

The second quarter ends with a two-minute warning and an end-of-half drive. Teams hurry, stop the clock, pass more and try field goals they wouldn't attempt in the middle of a quarter. It averaged 14.09 points from 2016 through 2025, the most of any quarter. The fourth quarter has the same two-minute window and averaged 12.98 points.

Does a high game total make the fourth quarter more likely to be highest?

Only slightly. In games with a closing total of 49 or higher, the fourth quarter won 32.25 percent of the time, compared with 29.95 percent in games at 40.5 or lower. The second quarter was steady at 35 to 37 percent across every total band. The total is a weak signal for this prop.

Is the fourth quarter highest-scoring correlated with the over?

Yes. When the fourth quarter was the highest-scoring quarter, the game went over the closing total 56.33 percent of the time, against a 48.97 percent baseline. The two legs together hit 17.20 percent of the time, compared with 15.05 percent if they were independent, so they're a positively correlated same-game parlay pair.

How does halftime scoring change the highest-scoring quarter odds?

A lot. When the first half had 17 or fewer total points, the fourth quarter ended up highest 47.23 percent of the time across 811 games. When the first half had 31 or more, the fourth won only 15.01 percent and the second quarter held on 62.77 percent. That's the biggest shift in the study, and it's only available to live bettors.

Does overtime count in the fourth quarter for this prop?

It depends on the sportsbook. Most grade the fourth quarter as regulation only, which is how this study counts it. Overtime happened in 5.46 percent of games, and in those games the fourth quarter was already the highest-scoring regulation quarter 40.3 percent of the time. Always check your book's house rules before betting.