NFL Two-Point Conversion Props, Tested

A successful two-point conversion happens in about 19.7 percent of NFL regular-season games. We checked every regular-season game from 2016 through 2025, and 520 of 2,639 had at least one, which puts the fair price on "Yes" near +408. The Super Bowl prices we found ran from +240 to +300, which imply a 25 to 29 percent chance. Unlike the safety or overtime props, this one has a real link to the total: games with a conversion went over 65.1 percent of the time, against 45.0 percent without one. That makes it a true correlated parlay leg, but the price on Yes usually eats most of that edge. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years by checking what a price implies before paying it.

Two-point props feel like a coin flip on coaching nerve. They aren't. They follow the game script, and the game script is something you can price. Here is how often a conversion actually happens, what the books charge for it, and where it fits in a parlay.

How Often Is There a Two-Point Conversion in an NFL Game?

We used nflverse play-by-play data for every regular-season game from 2016 through 2025, plus the 2026 season through the Thursday night game of Week 9. A game counts as "Yes" if either offense converted a two-point try. We left out defensive two-point returns, which happened in only 14 games over the ten seasons and don't settle most "successful conversion" props anyway.

Teams went for two on about 9 percent of their tries after a touchdown over the full sample, up from 8.1 percent in 2016. Across 1,228 attempts, 586 succeeded, a 47.7 percent rate. That's close enough to a coin flip that the prop mostly comes down to one question: does anyone try?

Someone tried in 34.7 percent of games, which makes fair odds on "Yes, there will be an attempt" about +188. A conversion needs both an attempt and a success, which is how you get from about one game in three to one in five.

The rate has drifted up. From 2016 through 2020 it was 18.36 percent, or about +445. From 2021 through 2025 it was 20.97 percent, or about +377. This season is running hotter, at 30 of 122 games (24.59 percent), mostly because teams are converting 55.9 percent of their tries. Success rates bounce around a lot from year to year, from 40.7 percent in 2024 to 55.1 percent in 2023, so we wouldn't price a full season off half of one.

What Price Do Sportsbooks Put on a Two-Point Conversion?

Regular-season two-point prices vary by book and by game, and we didn't find a reliable public archive of them. The Super Bowl gives the best reference points. SportsLine reported DraftKings at +275 for Super Bowl 54. The Westgate posted +240 on Yes and -280 on No for Super Bowl 57. Pickswise listed +280 for Super Bowl 58 and +300 on Yes with -425 on No for Super Bowl 60.

Here's what those prices need, measured against the 2016-25 regular-season rate:

The Super Bowl is one game with its own betting crowd, so these prices aren't a perfect stand-in for a Week 10 game. But they show the pattern. Books price the exciting side short, and the gap is large. At +300, Yes costs you about $21 per $100. A standard -110 spread bet with no edge at all costs about $4.50.

The No side is close to fair. At -425, No needs to hit 80.95 percent of the time, and it has hit 80.30 percent. That's a loss of under a dollar per $100. At the Westgate's -280, No needed only 73.68 percent, which would have been a winning price on the regular-season rate. That's the rare case where the boring side of a novelty prop was the better number.

Does a Two-Point Conversion Make the Over More Likely?

Yes, and this is what separates it from the other rare props we've tested. Games with a successful conversion went over the closing total 65.12 percent of the time. Games without one went over 45.00 percent of the time. The base rate across all games was 48.97 percent.

Part of that is simple math. A conversion adds two points to the final score. The bigger reason is the game script. Teams go for two when they're chasing, and chasing teams pass, score fast and give the ball back fast. Games with a conversion averaged 52.2 total points. Games without one averaged 44.0.

That's the opposite of what we found with NFL safety props and NFL overtime props. The safety had no link to the total at all. The two-point conversion does, and its link is about as strong as the one we found for defensive and special teams touchdowns.

So does the correlation make the parlay worth it? Run the numbers. Yes at +300 and the over at -110, multiplied as if the two were independent, pays about +664. The fair price for the pair is about +686. The correlation almost exactly cancels out the overpriced Yes leg. You end up close to break-even before the book shades the same-game price, and most books do shade correlated legs.

Which Games Produce the Most Two-Point Conversions?

The closing total is the best pregame signal we found. The spread barely matters.

In games totaled at 50 or more, more than a quarter had a conversion. That puts the fair price close to the +300 the books hang in the Super Bowl. In those games, conversion plus the over hit 16.44 percent of the time, which is fair odds near +508. If you're going to play this prop at all, that's the only band where the pregame price has a chance of being fair. With 371 games, though, the band rate could easily be a few points off in either direction.

The spread showed nothing. Games with a spread of 2.5 or less had a conversion 19.87 percent of the time, and games with a spread of 10 or more had one 20.12 percent of the time.

The final margin tells the real story, but you only know it after the fact. Games decided by three or fewer had a conversion 25.12 percent of the time. Games decided by 17 or more had one 11.84 percent of the time. Close games produce two-point tries because they produce the late-game situations where a coach has to chase.

When Do Two-Point Tries Happen?

Late. Of 1,228 attempts from 2016 through 2025, 819 came in the fourth quarter, two-thirds of the total. The third quarter had 255, the second 120 and the first only 31. Teams converted 46.6 percent of their fourth-quarter tries, a little below their 51 percent rate in the second and third quarters. Late tries usually come at bad times, from teams that need them, against defenses that know what's coming.

That shapes the live bet. If a game reaches the fourth quarter with no conversion, there's still a 13.37 percent chance of one the rest of the way. That's 327 of 2,446 games, and it's fair odds near +648. So most of the prop's value is still on the table going into the fourth quarter, more than with almost any other rare-event prop. The question is whether the game state makes it likely. A blowout in either direction pushes the odds down, while a one-score game with a trailing offense that can move the ball pushes them up.

How Does This Fit a Real Betting Plan?

The data gives four rules:

1. Know the fair price. About +408 on the ten-year rate and about +377 on the last five seasons. Anything shorter loses money over time. 2. Respect the correlation, but don't overpay for it. The conversion really is tied to the over. At typical Yes prices, the overpriced leg cancels out that edge. 3. Look at the total first. Games at 50 or higher are the only band where pregame Yes prices come close to fair. 4. Watch the fourth quarter. Most tries happen late, and the score and clock tell you far more than any pregame number.

Most bettors treat novelty props as easy money with a big payout. They aren't, and a good football handicappers service should show you what the price implies before you bet. Our football betting picks page covers the sides and totals we actually play, and our NFL spread picks page shows how we work against the number. If you're comparing services, our guide to daily sports betting picks explains what a real daily process looks like, and our NFL picks page has the weekly card. Our parlay picks page explains how we build correlated tickets.

Basketball bettors can use the same idea. Our basketball handicappers page shows how we price game script on the floor instead of chasing a story.

What This Study Doesn't Cover

This study counts any game with at least one successful offensive two-point conversion. It doesn't test team-specific or player-specific two-point props, and it doesn't use historical regular-season prices, because we couldn't find a reliable source. Defensive two-point returns are excluded. The 2026 numbers run through the Thursday night game of Week 9. Coaching trends can change quickly, and the recent rise in attempts is worth tracking. But nothing in ten seasons of data supports a pregame Yes price shorter than about +290, even in the highest-total games.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How often is there a two-point conversion in an NFL game?

In about 19.7 percent of regular-season games. From 2016 through 2025, 520 of 2,639 games had at least one successful offensive two-point conversion. The 2021-25 rate was 20.97 percent, and the 2026 season had a conversion in 30 of its first 122 games, or 24.59 percent.

What are fair odds for a two-point conversion in an NFL game?

About +408 on the 2016-25 rate of 19.70 percent, and about +377 on the 2021-25 rate. Super Bowl prices we found ranged from +240 to +300, which imply a 25 to 29 percent chance, well above the regular-season rate.

Is the two-point conversion prop a good bet?

Not on the Yes side at typical prices. At +300, Yes needs to hit 25 percent of the time to break even, and it has hit 19.7 percent of the time. That's an expected loss of about $21 per $100. The No side has been much closer to fair, and at some prices it has been the better number.

Is a two-point conversion correlated with the over?

Yes. Games with a successful conversion went over the closing total 65.12 percent of the time, compared with 45.00 percent for games without one. Conversion and over together hit 12.73 percent of the time, against 9.65 percent if the two were independent. That makes it a true correlated same-game parlay leg.

Which games have the most two-point conversions?

High-total games. Games with a closing total of 50 or more had a conversion 25.88 percent of the time, against about 17 percent for totals of 43.5 or lower. The spread showed no pattern. Close final margins matter most, but you only know those after the game.

How often do NFL two-point conversions succeed?

About 47.7 percent of the time. From 2016 through 2025, teams converted 586 of 1,228 tries. The rate swings by season, from 40.7 percent in 2024 to 55.1 percent in 2023. Through Week 9 of 2026, teams have converted 33 of 59 tries.

Should I bet the two-point prop live instead of pregame?

Live is where the information is. Two-thirds of tries come in the fourth quarter, and 60 percent come from the trailing team. If a game reaches the fourth quarter without a conversion, the chance of one the rest of the way has been 13.37 percent, fair odds near +648. The edge depends on the score and clock, so it pays to bet it selectively, not by default.