NFL Longest Touchdown Props, by the Numbers

The longest touchdown in an NFL game went over 40.5 yards in 43.8 percent of regular-season games from 2016 through 2025, which works out to a fair price of about +128 on the over. The median longest touchdown was 36 yards, so a line of 35.5 is close to a coin flip. This season is running short: through Week 9, only 34.1 percent of 2026 games have produced a touchdown longer than 40.5 yards. The prop also lines up with the game total. Games with a 40-plus-yard score went over 61.8 percent of the time, against 38.9 percent for games without one. The Best Bet on Sports has built a verified $367,520+ in profit across all sportsbooks over more than twenty years, and props like this one are where knowing the base rate pays.

The longest touchdown prop looks like a novelty bet, but it's a clean way to bet on big plays. You aren't betting on one player or one team. You're betting on whether anyone, on any play, scores from a long way out. That makes it easy to price from history, and it makes it a natural same-game parlay leg next to the total. So we measured it.

How Did We Measure the Longest Touchdown?

We used nflverse play-by-play data for every regular-season game from 2016 through 2025, a total of 2,639 games, plus the 135 games of 2026 played through Sunday of Week 9. For each game, we found every touchdown and recorded its length. For passing and rushing touchdowns, that's the yards gained on the play. For interception, fumble, kickoff and punt return touchdowns, it's the return yardage.

The game's longest touchdown is the biggest of those numbers. Only 17 games in the ten-year sample, 0.64 percent, had no touchdown at all. How those are graded depends on the book, so check the house rules before you bet an under.

How Often Does the Longest Touchdown Go Over Common Lines?

Here's the full ladder, with the fair American price for the over based on 2016-2025.

The median longest touchdown was 36 yards and the average was 39.9. The average sits above the median because a handful of 80- and 90-yard plays pull it up. That matters for pricing. If a book sets its line near the average instead of the median, the under is the side getting the extra value, because most games come in short of the average.

The other number to notice is the bottom of the distribution. In 25.65 percent of games, the longest touchdown was shorter than 20 yards. One game in four, every score came from close range.

Are Long Touchdowns Getting Rarer?

Yes, and 2026 is the low point so far.

Season by season, the over-40.5 rate was 48.0 percent in both 2016 and 2017 and fell to 36.5 percent in 2022, then settled between 42 and 43 percent from 2023 through 2025. This year's 34.07 percent on 135 games would be the lowest season in the sample.

Some of that is noise. A 135-game sample carries a margin of a few points either way. But the direction matches what we found when we tested defensive and special-teams touchdowns, which are also running well below their usual rate in 2026. Return touchdowns are a big part of this prop, as we'll show below, so fewer of them means fewer long scores. If you're pricing the over off a ten-year average, you're probably paying for a league that doesn't exist this season.

Does the Game Total Change the Odds?

A little. Higher totals produce more touchdowns, and more touchdowns means more chances at a long one.

The step is real but small. Going from a total in the low 40s to a total of 44 or higher adds about five points to the over-40.5 rate, and after that it flattens out. A 52-point game isn't much more likely to have a long score than a 45-point game.

The spread barely matters. Games with a spread of 3 or less hit the over 43.15 percent of the time, 3.5 to 6.5 hit 45.17 percent, 7 to 9.5 hit 43.76 percent, and double-digit spreads hit 42.07 percent. Blowouts don't create more long touchdowns, and close games don't create fewer.

Should You Parlay the Longest Touchdown With the Over?

This is where the prop earns a place in a same-game parlay. Long touchdowns and overs move together.

A 40-plus-yard score is worth roughly a touchdown on the scoreboard that the total didn't plan for, so the over hits far more often in those games. That creates correlation.

If the two legs were independent, longest TD over 40.5 plus the game over would hit 21.49 percent of the time. In the data, it hit 27.12 percent, a fair price of about +269. The under side works the same way. Longest TD under 40.5 plus the game under would hit 28.63 percent if independent, and it actually hit 34.26 percent, a fair price of about +192.

That's the case for pairing them. Sportsbooks know these legs are related and usually shade the same-game parlay price, so the question is whether the price you're offered is shorter than these fair numbers. We covered how that shading works in our same-game parlay strategy for the NFL guide. And if you want the general rule on stacking overs, see our post on all-overs parlay correlation math. Not every scoring prop works that way, as our NFL field goal props parlay test shows.

What Kind of Play Usually Produces the Longest Touchdown?

Passes, by a wide margin, but returns matter more than most bettors think.

There were 1,533 touchdowns of more than 40.5 yards from 2016 through 2025. One in five was an interception, fumble, kickoff or punt return. Returns are only about one in eight of the game's longest scores overall, but when the longest score is a long one, a return is often the reason. That's why the 2026 drop in return touchdowns hits this prop so directly.

How Does the Prop Play Live?

Long touchdowns can happen at any point, so the prop's live price should fall steadily as the game goes on without one.

Read that first row carefully. About one game in four has a 40-plus-yard score in the first half. In the other three, the second half still produces one about a quarter of the time. That's a real number for a prop most bettors treat as dead after a quiet first half.

What About Tonight's Bills-Vikings Game?

Monday night's game has Minnesota favored by 3 at home against Buffalo with a total of 44.5, according to the closing-line feed in the nflverse game file this morning. That total sits in the 44-to-46.5 band, where the longest touchdown went over 40.5 in 45.90 percent of games over ten seasons. That's a fair price of about +118 on the over. Given how short 2026 has been running, we'd lean toward the lower end of that range rather than the ten-year number. Check the posted line, and check the price before you add it to a parlay, because the books move these props quickly once the injury report is final.

Why Does This Matter If You're Paying for Picks?

Because a prop like this is all price. There's no matchup secret in "someone scores from 41 yards out." The edge, when there is one, comes from knowing the base rate and catching a number that's off. Anyone selling football betting picks should be able to tell you what a prop is actually worth before they tell you to bet it.

That's the standard we hold our football handicappers to. If you're weighing whether to buy sports picks, our sports handicapping service page explains how we choose spots. The weekly card is on our NFL picks page, and if you bet both sports in the same week, our basketball handicappers page covers the NBA side.

What This Study Doesn't Cover

This study measures touchdown length from play-by-play yardage, not from each sportsbook's official grading, and books can differ on edge cases like laterals or penalties after the catch. It doesn't separate games by quarterback, weather or roof. The 2026 sample is 135 games through Sunday of Week 9, and it doesn't include tonight's game. The Bills-Vikings line comes from the morning closing-line feed, and lines move, so check the number before kickoff.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How often does the longest touchdown in an NFL game go over 40.5 yards?

From 2016 through 2025, the longest touchdown went over 40.5 yards in 43.80 percent of regular-season games, a fair price of about +128 on the over. In 2026, through Week 9, the rate is 34.07 percent.

What is the average longest touchdown in an NFL game?

The median longest touchdown was 36 yards from 2016 through 2025, and the average was 39.9 yards. The average runs higher because a few very long plays pull it up, so a line set near the average gives the under extra value.

Are long touchdowns less common in 2026?

Yes. Through Week 9, only 34.07 percent of 2026 games produced a touchdown longer than 40.5 yards, down from 41.12 percent in 2022-2025 and 47.01 percent in 2016-2018. The median longest touchdown this season is 31 yards.

Does the longest touchdown prop correlate with the over?

Strongly. Games with a touchdown longer than 40.5 yards went over the closing total 61.79 percent of the time, compared with 38.94 percent for games without one. Longest TD over 40.5 plus the game over hit 27.12 percent, against 21.49 percent if the legs were independent.

Does a higher game total mean a longer touchdown?

Only a little. Games with totals of 40.5 or lower had a 40-plus-yard touchdown 40.86 percent of the time, while games with totals of 44 or higher landed between 45 and 46 percent. Above 44, the rate barely moves.

What kind of play is usually the longest touchdown?

A pass, in 63.68 percent of games. Rushing touchdowns were the longest score in 24.45 percent, and return touchdowns in 11.87 percent. Among touchdowns longer than 40.5 yards, returns made up 20.48 percent.

Can you bet the longest touchdown prop live?

Yes, and the live price matters. When no 40-plus-yard touchdown had been scored by halftime, one still came in the second half 25.14 percent of the time, a fair price near +298. After three quarters without one, the rate fell to 13.78 percent.